[Kapitan]

Considering that in a war over the South Chinese Sea or Taiwan most of that ^ would be amasse din a relatziuv ely small amount of space with added supportr by missiles and airpowers based on shores, and then those short supply lines, I must - despite your diagnosis - disagree with yoru conclusions on some things, Kapitan. The closer to China the battles talke place, the bigger that is an advanatge for China. They can amass their comboiat power whereas the US sti8ll needs to cosnider their inteersts in othe rreigons of the globe, and must split forces, "scatter them around", as I put it. Only a part of the US Navy cpould join direct ly the war, whereas the Chiense can send ALL theior navy, and most of their land-based air power, while being still save on the contient and along the borders with Russia.

Always up for discussion, but I will point out my initial post was based on a much broader global style rather than focusing on the SCS, it was mainly in answer to the global reach.

To turn to your points, yes the closer to China the harder it will be as they have land based aircraft and can amass forces that is a given however by doing so you deny yourself freedom of movement which is a key element in order to keep momentum in battle.

While the USA has certain commitments elsewhere a major confrontation of that kind would see the USN focus its forces and cut loose some of its priorities or give them to another nation such as Canada or Belgium to handle.

Like the USN China cannot send its entire navy to sea all at once, simply put there's always going to be ships in dock for repairs and maintenance or out of service the best your going to get is roughly 2/3 of any navy.

The USN has large surface forces and is more than capable of using allied forces as well, the USN wouldn't simply be scratching their heads wondering where the assets are coming from they know that they can take x from here and Y from there and there's always roaming groups on independent patrol.

Also, until the war breaks out, they will have collected even more small shifts of the balance in their favour. How they accioeve that, is a combnaiton of factors the vidoe decribes, and an increasingly aggressive use of their dominant business position in the world to get what they want

Which is no good to China if they cant get raw materials for production, or ship out finished goods, its why China would have to keep its supply lines open otherwise its economy would tank.

They got the nsoth Chiense sea pratcially for free and the US let it happen. This has sent a signal throughout the region. We see more and more small steps by some neighbourign states that accept to fall into appeasement policies against their overwhelming huge and aggressive neighbour of theirs. Whether the Philippines did demand higher fees for harvbouring Us forces or not, is not the issue, it doe snot matter. That the US did nothing but symbolic policies so fa to stop the "land taking" by the Chinese - that is what resonates through the region currently, even mroe so after the Trump years which were a big sobering regarding the US reliability in Asia and in the Gulf states. Trump may be gone for the time being, but the damage was done, and is still there.

I don't disagree Trump did do a lot of damage in the region, and its why I believe USA wont act if China invades Taiwan or if it does it'll be sanctions or something of the like.

I see the Japanese growth in militarizaition in that context, too, The Japanese understood that maybe the US will be less reliably than for decades was thought. Right becasue the Us population is so inwilling to accept high losses in a war far away anymore. I do not judge or condemn this - I just take note of that it is like this. The general mood seems to be set for growing isolationism. Lets face it, a war with China at sea will be most likely short, and very brutal. Much like what Gorshkov already described future naval wars to be

They are growing as are the South Koreans and the reason they are growing is not because of lack of willing with the USA its more to do with Chinas massive build up, in any war were likely to see the Europeans hold the Atlantic theatre while the USA would dedicated a good portion of the Atlantic fleet into the Pacific.

Any war with China and it will be costly not just economically.