Quote:
Originally Posted by mapuc
Some thoughts
1. How fast/quick can China take Taiwan
2. How fast can USA and its allied come to the rescue
3. If China takes Taiwan before USA and its allied arrive-Will USA then liberate Taiwan or will they see it as a Chinese problem ?
Markus
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1 and 3: everybody currently recalculates things in the light of the Ukraine experience.
2 The only force that could "come to the rescue" is the US, and the US alone, all others simply do not have the weight and numbers. Maybe some day Japan will be, but right now I dont think so. Taking Taiwan probably is more costly than previously thought, but then the whole Island is in range of intense missile barrages from China. China can let missiles rain down on them all day and all night long.
How long it takes? It depends. China bases on the bet that it can keep US carrier groups far enough away to beocmne effedctive, and if they get close enough to become effective they would be in range of Chinese land power or get detected os that carrier killers can be zeroed in on them. Those logn chains of islands will be the first frontline. Chiona wants to keep save all water west of it, the US want to be able to break through it. Later, China may want to break thorzugh it and further East to be able to operate a globally active blue water navy, the US will then see these island as an obstacle to contain China west of these islands. Thats why Taiwan is so inportant, it is the lock in this chain of islands. The one side wants to break it open, the other wants to keep it locked.