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Military failure instead of reliable partner? Germany's turnaround is becoming a pipe burst before it has even begun

There is growing concern among politicians and experts that Germany will remain unreliable in terms of security policy. Above all, plans for rearmament fall short, they say.

"What you leave behind, you find in front of you again," is a common saying in Finland. It refers to something that you simply ignore and that eventually catches up with you.

The saying comes to mind when Finnish political scientist Minna Ålander talks about German security and defense policy. Germany's mistakes in energy, where it relied on Russia as a partner for a long time and gave little thought to security, are now catching up with the German government in the Ukraine war, she says.

Finland, which shares a 1,343-kilometer border with Russia, is different. The country has always maintained its national defense and relies on strategic foresight in security policy, Ålander explains.
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"It is no secret how hard the Bundeswehr has it and where it is lacking. However, the shortcomings have become even more apparent since the war began, and one wonders: what could the Bundeswehr do when the going gets tough?"

For many Finns, it is hard to understand how such a rich, economically strong country like Germany has hardly any military capacity left, the expert lets it be known. In the context of Finland's upcoming accession to NATO, these questions take on a new poignancy when Finland and Germany, as allies, are even more closely committed to each other's security than before.

Finland's southern neighbors - the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania - depend on NATO's alliance defense, including Germany in particular. But since Russian leader Vladimir Putin decided to attack Ukraine on Feb. 24, people there are no longer so sure that the Germans would be able to help in an emergency, Ålander says.

One question that Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks also asked publicly recently is: "Can we trust Germany when it comes to defending Latvia and NATO? We are ready to die. And you?"

But it is not only in the Baltics that Germany's reputation as a reliable security partner is under scrutiny. In addition to the long list of shortcomings in the Bundeswehr, ranging from outdated equipment to technical problems, it is above all the dispute over energy dependence on Russia and the delays and U-turns in arms deliveries that are causing uncertainty abroad. Experts and observers in Germany also have doubts.

"The rhetoric of warning is slowly increasing. We see on the one hand that in Germany the time buffer for effective action is being used up. And on the other hand, we have the international partners that are absolutely needed," says Christian Mölling, research director at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP).

Cooperation is not just a wish of the German government, he says, but a necessity. But this may be lost step by step, the expert explains.

According to observers, the fact that the two-percent target cannot be reached immediately with the announced 100-billion-euro special fund for the Bundeswehr, but will be "stretched out over a longer period of time," as Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD) has now announced in the Bundestag, does not exactly lead to more confidence among allies. Moreover, countries such as Poland and Finland already meet NATO's target.

The German image in Finland: unprepared, without crisis management

"What's so surprising in Finland is how unprepared Germany was caught by the war and that there was no crisis management at all - militarily and in terms of energy policy," says Minna Ålander. Her impression is that Germany reacted to events, but did not plan ahead.

The most recent example: After much toing and froing, it was decided that the three German nuclear power plants still connected to the grid would continue to run until April 2023 - "but it can already be assumed that the winter of 2024 will be worse, and what then? Energy is an essential part of security policy," says the Finnish political scientist.

Defense budget dispute

The concern that Germany will remain a military failure in addition to its hard-to-fathom energy policy is also being debated in the Bundestag these days, where the budget for the military is being discussed.
"In my view, the 2023 defense budget is indeed irresponsible, lacks ambition and perspective. Meeting the two-percent target has become a distant prospect," criticized Florian Hahn (CSU), defense policy spokesman for the CDU/CSU.

Specifically, he said, there is a lack of ammunition worth 20 billion euros, for example. "The draft budget now contains one billion euros per year for the procurement of ammunition. That means we need 20 years if we continue like this to reach the requirement," Hahn explained.
In an interview with the Bild newspaper, Eva Högl (SPD), the Bundestag's defense commissioner, also called for the ammunition depots to be completely replenished before the end of this legislative period. She is also skeptical about the announced increase in the size of the force from the current 182,000 soldiers to 203,000 men and women in uniform.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) had announced in May that Germany would "soon have the largest conventional army within NATO" in Europe.

Lack of understanding for armaments policy

But even if the Bundestag agreed to increase the special fund, not much would change, notes Christian Mölling. "Defense is a long-term business. Even if they allocate more money for munitions, the question is, do they manage to provide the contracts before the money expires."

"The political leadership has underestimated the complexity of defense projects and the time it takes to set them up," Mölling says. He sees a lack of understanding of how arms deals work, saying other governments before didn't really understand it either.
In general, he says, the issue of war and defense has not been seriously thought through in recent years. "Now all of a sudden you are faced with the challenge that war is in Europe. And of course the decision-makers don't have a good answer to what is best to do. The German government lacks a plan to support Ukraine and build up the Bundeswehr."

Confidence in Northern Europe is crumbling

In Finland, people just shake their heads at this, says political scientist Minna Ålander, while pointing to a difference in mentality. The existential threat posed by Russia is closer to people there, conscription and its necessity have been much discussed but not abolished and are more socially accepted. So is defense spending.

"Like a James Bond movie" This is what Finland brings to NATO militarily.
But the questions being asked there with regard to Germany are not just military ones. They are also about trust.

After all, the hesitant behavior, the unclear communication regarding Ukraine, which seemed like a weighing of the situation, baffled the north. In the Baltic NATO states, in turn, one wonders, should an attack scenario occur, "whether Germany would then also try to negotiate first, or do everything necessary from the first moment to defend the Baltics?"

Poland and the U.S. - the new best friends

The mood in Poland is similar. The country of 38.5 million people is currently arming itself massively - both internally and externally. Which is driven by the fear that Russia could extend the war to Polish territory and invade.

"Defense is a huge priority, and Poland spends a lot of money on it by its standards," Mölling says. The trees may not grow to the sky with this, but the government is prepared to invest consistently and over a long period of time, he says. The Poles are looking primarily to the U.S., which is currently their most important partner.

Conversely, the U.S. also sees Poland as a key ally. "Poland has become our most important partner in continental Europe," Politico magazine quoted a senior U.S. Army official in Europe as saying. He pointed to the crucial role Poland has played in supporting Ukraine and bolstering NATO defenses in the Baltics.

But the shortcomings are also seen in Germany. In a confidential paper first reported by Der Spiegel, Inspector General Eberhard Zorn ordered in September that the Bundeswehr must position itself more effectively for a looming conflict with Russia. Germany must live up to its "leading role in Europe," Zorn summarized in the report.

Has Germany ever had a "leading role"?

The fact that Germany now aspires to this leadership role - Olaf Scholz avoids the term, while his party leader Lars Klingbeil speaks of a "leading power" - was suggested by the chancellor's speech on the turn of the millennium on February 27.

The speech raised high expectations abroad. Minna Ålander analyzed the Finnish view that Germany was doing a U-turn and was now serious about defense. But what followed was disillusionment. Neither the NATO two-percent target would be reached, nor would the 100 billion euros in special assets be enough for an armament that was commensurate with the threat situation, says Ålander.

"The German turnaround has obviously not yet taken place where it should," comments Christian Mölling. In the case of Sweden and Finland, which want to join NATO as a result of the Russian war of aggression, the own turning point is all the more evident, he says.

Moreover, states that have been patient for a long time because they had no security policy alternatives are already looking for other partners, he said. "For Germany, time is running out."

Alternative partner: Great Britain

This is evident in Finland right now. In terms of security policy, the Nordic countries are looking to a different ally: "It has long been the case that the UK is a much more important security partner - for all the Nordic countries," says political scientist Ålander.

"While Germany is often highlighted as one of many like-minded security allies, none of the four Nordic countries see Germany as the most important European security and defense partner," according to a letter from the think tank Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. This is unlikely to change any time soon.

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