"My hunch is it's in the high 40s."
So says a Conservative MP to me, as we indulge in a spot of guesswork about how many Tory MPs might have formally requested a vote of confidence in the prime minister.
What we are witnessing right now are the aftershocks, the tremors provoked by the publication of the report into pandemic parties on Boris Johnson's watch.
For Conservative MPs to try to topple a leader, 15% of them have to write to the chair of the party's 1922 Committee, which represents backbench Tory MPs.
Fifteen percent of the current number is 54 MPs. And the chairman of the committee in question is Sir Graham Brady.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61627796