Ukraine recalibrates counteroffensive: no major attack, but focus on attrition
Ukraine has changed the strategy of its counteroffensive in the south and east of the country. According to military analysts, the army is now focusing particularly on depleting Russian forces rather than a large, concentrated attack in one place along the front. The strategy is reflected in repeated attacks far behind the front lines. The plans were necessarily adjusted because of the large losses at the beginning of the counteroffensive, which started in early June. "In the first weeks, troops moved forward, but this was accompanied by large losses," said security expert Maria Avdeeva of the Ukrainian European Expert Association. According to The New York Times, some 20 percent of deployed weapons were damaged or destroyed, including Western tanks and armoured vehicles. This was offset by fairly limited terrain gains: about 300 square kilometres.
Ukraine is operating more cautiously than Russia, observes Brigadier General Han Bouwmeester, professor of military operations at the Netherlands Defence Academy. "Ukraine is careful with their people and equipment. You don't want to send them indiscriminately into a minefield." In the first weeks of the counteroffensive, Ukrainian forces have been looking for weaknesses in the defences, but there do not seem to be any; the lines are proving strong for the Ukrainian army, which lacks air superiority and faces a looming ammunition shortage. "Because Ukraine had to wait for arms deliveries, Russia was able to put its defences in order," says Avdeeva. "Multiple lines have been set up and there are a lot of mines."
Mines in particular make a major breakthrough difficult. Ukrainian engineer troops have insufficient resources to make their way through the fields full of explosives. According to The Washington Post, Kyiv has received about 15 percent of the requested demining resources from the West. In the meantime, Ukraine is shifting its focus to "wearing down" and exhausting enemy forces. This is done, for example, with its own troop movements, says former Army Commander in Chief Mart de Kruif. "Ukraine has shorter logistics lines, so it can move troops faster from south to north. Russia has to do more work to move units, and that works out." More important are the targeted attacks behind the front, Avdeeva observes. Ammunition depots, supply lines and training grounds have been targets of numerous attacks in recent weeks. "What Russia considered safe territory is now being attacked with long-range missiles," says the analyst. Take the strategically important Crimean bridge, or a coastal hotel where a top Russian commander was taken out. Targets "in depth" could cause Russia long-term problems. "Anything you take out behind the front does not reappear at the front," says Bouwmeester. That applies to equipment, but also to reservists to replace exhausted soldiers.
The attrition should lead to Russian defences eventually showing weaknesses. "If morale breaks somewhere, you can strike there," says De Kruif. Ukraine seems to have the resources to still come up with the big 'push', Bouwmeester believes. "There would be nine to 12 combat brigades trained, of which four to six have been deployed. There are still units behind, so." In the attrition strategy, time plays an important role. "There was a misunderstanding in Ukraine and abroad that the counter-offensive would be a quick operation," says Avdeeva. "But this is really different from the liberation of the Kharkiv region and the city of Kherson." That time is just scarce. Every day of war destroys the country more, including financially. That is why Kyiv would have preferred to force a major breakthrough at the front, Avdeeva says.
"Russia, meanwhile, is using the time to buy and produce more weapons and drones," Avdeeva says. Former Commander De Kruif, on the other hand, sees a rapid increase in Western weapons production. "If that really picks up steam, the West will produce more than Russia," he says.
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