[Skybird]

AdG writes on the future of German energy :
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Although a change of direction in energy policy could not achieve anything in the short term, it could at least make the prospects in the medium term appear somewhat less gloomy. However, there is no sign of any such change.

With regard to the 200-billion package announced by the German government, which among other things provides for subsidizing gas prices for end customers in Germany and could thus further drive up prices for everyone, Viktor Orban spoke of cannibalism. Italy, France and other member states also expressed sniffles in the face of the alleged playing out of the fiscal power of the oh-so-strong Germany. However, the "defensive umbrella" reveals neither a carnivorous menu of Greens, SPD and FDP, nor is it a measure of the budgetary combat weight of an economically strong country. It reveals only one thing: Germany has its back to the wall.

After all, aren't you wondering where the special broadcasts are? Where are the experts who break down how the gas turned off by the sanctions is now to be replaced? Instead of concrete solutions to the supply shortage problem, all you get is flowery verbiage. Veronika Grimm, a member of the Council of Experts, even finds the high gas prices somewhat gratifying, since they ensure that hydrogen now appears to be relatively cheap and efficient. Hydrogen-capable gas-fired power plants as a rescue from the acute gas shortage.

According to an estimate by the BDI [=Association of the German Industry, Skybird], 43 gigawatts of additional power plant capacity would have to be built in the next 8 years if the coal phase-out were to continue until 2030. This is equivalent to the output of 43 nuclear power plants. Worldwide, 53 AKWs [=Atomkraftwerke, Skybird] are being built right now. Read that sentence again, but this time, without laughing. Well, I knew you wouldn't be able to do that. I've now lost track of whether they run on gas or hydrogen.

But somehow it doesn't matter anyway. Both are illusory. At the press conference to present the double-Wumms! (I'm afraid you lose three brain cells just typing this "word"), Christian Lindner promised that the answer to the supply shortage would be to expand renewable energies, and "freedom energies". Now read that sentence again, but without crying. Well, I also knew you wouldn't be able to do that.

Leave the pack of tissues within reach, because we are now going to look at some concrete figures of gas imports of the EU countries. The sanctions against Russia have put the axe to gas supplies. While Russian gas accounted for 40 percent of imports last year, the share has now fallen to 8 percent. The next largest imports come from Algeria and Norway. However, they cannot supply more gas than they did in 2021. The import slump of more than 80 percent for Russian gas is entirely made up by imports of LNG. The share of LNG, including from the U.S. and Qatar, in the total import volume has increased from 18 percent in 2021 to 42 percent in September 2022. The largest importers of LNG last year were Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands and Belgium. Germany does not appear in this list because the first LNG terminals will not even come online until the end of 2022.

So the EU is relying on the only variable factor it has for gas imports: LNG. According to an estimate by Bloomberg Intelligence, global production of liquefied natural gas will be 455 million tons in 2022. Of that, 70 percent is already reserved through long-term contracts. The remaining 136 million tons are available on the spot market. Capped gas imports from Russia are equivalent to about 120 million tons of LNG. Relative to last year, the EU has so far imported only about 13 million tons of additional LNG. The import terminals do not even have the capacity to take in as much LNG as would be needed.

According to Bloomberg, at most an additional 60 million tons would be possible. In general, if an additional demand of 120 million - or 60 million, due to limited capacity - meets a rigid supply of 136 million tons, one can imagine that this will not end well. The U.S. and Qatar will not be able to supply more until the middle of the decade, expanding global supply. Thus, it is now a case of outbidding competition for a scarce commodity. Emerging and developing countries cannot keep up and are resorting to fuel oil. The lights are going out in Bangladesh and Pakistan.

But even if we supply ourselves with 60 million tons of LNG at horrendous prices - at the expense of the Third World and our own prosperity - there is still a shortfall of 82 billion cubic meters of gas, which the lack of imports from Russia is tearing into the gas supply. The gas storage facilities of the EU member states are currently filled with 95 billion cubic meters of gas. So the whole thing is on the edge. And it's not thought out for more than a few months. After all, what will the winter of 2023/24 look like and how will the storage facilities be filled then? What is the alternative plan? Freedom energy? Hydrogen? Freight bike? Clay hut?

The EU has several answers at once, which I would again recommend the handkerchiefs when reading. The RePowerEU program envisions managing shortages in the short term. In the medium to long term, the implementation of the Green Deal, with industrial policy management of innovation and he promotion of wind and solar energy. If you are now scrunching up your handkerchief and asking yourself, "What the heck!", fret not. The RePowerEU concept includes other steps as well: "Turning off the lights, putting the lid on the pot, turning down the heat and taking the bus and train are some examples of what we can do as individuals or all together. The Commission is working with the International Energy Agency, consumer organizations and other stakeholders to find ways for citizens to further reduce their energy consumption." Ha! Now you've laughed again.

According to the German Federal Statistical Office, Germany imported less than half the previous year's value of gas in July 2022. However, it paid three times as much for the lower import volume as it did for the higher import volume in July 2021, a fivefold increase in the import price per unit. This is the loss of wealth that is only beginning to emerge behind the freedom energy, behind the flowery words and the lack of special shipments.

Supply will continue to be scarce and expensive for a long time, and when it is a little less scarce in a few years, it will still be expensive. While a shift in energy policy might not make a difference in the short term, it might at least make the outlook in the medium term seem a little less bleak. However, such a change of tack is nowhere to be heard. There is no plan. "Climate over everything" is how the Wall Street Journal recently summed up this absurd policy, which is nothing more than dull ideology. The fact that the head of the association of the chemical industry, which accounts for 15 percent of total gas consumption, is now warning of Germany's deindustrialization comes 10 years too late. You know what? Pass me a handkerchief, please.

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"Iceberg behind, Captain!"