[Skybird]

FOCUS: There are two culprits for the destruction of prosperity - neither of them sits in Moscow.



Since the global financial crisis in 2008, the ECB has pumped an additional six trillion euros into the market. Experts speak of a money overhang that is now being unloaded in inflation. A dangerous chain reaction has long since set in.

"Peace is the highest good" is the current slogan of the "Greens". But violating monetary stability, one would like to shout at them, is no trivial offense either. It remains Putin's war, but it is our inflation.

Two culprits can be named for the destruction of prosperity and purchasing power that has now become obvious, neither of whom lives in Moscow. Possibly this is even the reason why none of the governing parties wants to talk seriously to the citizen about the cause and effect of this inflation of the century.

Both hands of every government politician are currently pointing indignantly in the direction of the Kremlin, so that there is no hand left for reaching for one's own nose.

War and inflation have one thing in common. Only the state can start both and only the state can end them. From the point of view of its critics, capitalism may be evil and omnipresent. But waging war, printing money and fixing interest rates, it cannot do that by its own power and glory.

So when we talk about inflation, we are talking about the core competence of the state. It owns the central bank. It appoints the ECB president and the head of the Bundesbank. The consequences of inflation are of utmost relevance to Germans economically, politically and socially. Narrowing the political debate to the question "heavy or light weapons for Ukraine?" therefore means trivializing and ultimately fictionalizing politics.

The inflation victim, who is thankfully different from the war victim, is physically unharmed. The employer's salary transfer looks the same as always. The bank statement from the savings account or stock portfolio shows no peculiarities.

But at the latest at the store counter, in the car dealership and travel agency, at the gas station and also when paying rent and ancillary rental costs, it is noticeable that something has started to slip here, robbing money of its stability and many people of their certainty about the future.

Which brings us to the culprits who have worked hand in hand for years. For the European debt politicians burned those trillions that were printed for them by the European central banks. What-Ever-It-Takes was the rallying cry of a crazy time. The Americans would call those involved "Partners in Crime."

The fact is that since the global financial crisis of 2008, the ECB has pumped an additional six trillion euros into the market. This means that the amount of central bank money in the euro area has increased more than sixfold since 2008. The lion's share of this money is not matched by any economic value, i.e., neither additional sales nor additional profits, which is why experts also speak of a money overhang.
"Five trillion euros are powder kegs in the ECB's basement".

This money overhang is now being discharged in inflation. Professor Hans-Werner Sinn puts this overhang at five trillion euros and says: "The five trillion euros are powder kegs in the basement of the ECB. Due to the effect of rising demand from the states that have taken on debt, some of the barrels have caught fire. The spark was the supply tightening by Corona."

All the promises made by the German government - Lindner: tackling rising prices is "top priority" - are meant to reassure, but can't help. The force of the events is too great for that. A chain reaction has long since been set in motion. More explosive devices are on their way to ignite the remaining powder kegs:

Explosive device 1: The markets for energy cannot calm down like this. The war in Europe, the monopoly-like structure of the oil companies and Germany's dependence on imported energy, exacerbated by the simultaneity of the coal and nuclear phase-out, mean the perfect storm for price developments.

Explosive 2: The markets for raw materials and semi-finished goods have tightened, due to the coincidence of pandemic and war. In many places, supply chains are still broken. Global demand and global supply do not currently match in many product groups. Plus 33.5 percent over April 2021 prices for semi-finished goods were just measured.

Explosive device 3: The victims of price developments to date will do everything in their power, at least where they are organized in trade unions, to defend themselves against the reduction in their standard of living and the dimming of their future prospects. The heads of the individual unions, above all IG Metall, have no other chance than to go to the barricades on behalf of their members. The price spiral is driving the wage spiral. And before long, the wage spiral will drive the price spiral.

Explosive device 4: The government debtors are not very insightful. They are in the process of further expanding spending financed on credit - in southern Europe, but not only there. In Germany, too, social relief packages are being put together without regard for financial losses, coal and nuclear power plants are being taken off the grid and the largest debt-financed rearmament program in German history is being launched.

Explosive device 5: In this situation, the ECB would have to increase the value of money, i.e. raise interest rates. But that is exactly what it does not dare to do. It is the prisoner of its stock and bond-buying policy with an associated zero interest rate policy, because the highly indebted countries of Greece (193 percent of GDP), Italy (150 percent of GDP), France (112 percent) and Portugal (127 percent) can no longer bear their debts at a significantly higher interest rate. They are not productive enough. They are addicted to cheap money. An effective fight against inflation will trigger a deep recession for them - and possibly not only for them.

Explosive device 6: There is currently no politician in Germany who, equipped with expertise and personal credibility, could seek a serious dialog with the people. Christian Lindner is not a second Karl Schiller, and Robert Habeck is not a new Otto Graf Lambsdorff. But someone would have to talk to the voters about performance and productivity and thus also about the impending overburdening of the German social product.

Conclusion: The miraculous increase in money is reaching its natural limits. The German prosperity of the past 15 years was the best prosperity that money could buy.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)





My impression is that many people still have not understood the real scale and dimension of desaster that is coming upon us now. And a few decision-makers are so frozen by fear of realization that they just function in autopilot mode, staying on course for deaster, because they are frozen, paralysed in horror and reality denial. What has - finally - found us now, will become very, very bad.



Add to this the damn sociological, Green-marxist (thats what it is) agenda that intentionally wants to destroy industrialization in Germany, and wants a destabilising of the structural integrity of the middle class to get if flushed away in riots and being replaced with marxist collectivism. No more private property, no more rights to claim self-responsibility, a merciless collectivization of everybody and everything and destroying of everbyody rejecting to "voluntarily" participate. State-given mass movements as mandatory citizens' duty.


Personally, I do not take it for granted anymore that I will still have an economic-financial basis in a couple of years from now on. Ten years, maybe 15 if I am lucky, then the brown stuff will have reached the ceiling. And that is just the economical aspect, not including the for ideological reasons tuned dysfunctional minds of our decision makers whose predecessors brought us to this pass.


You may hope for some randomness gifting you unpredictably and unexpectedly some luck born out of chaos - but let go all reasonable hope. There is no reason to be hopeful. A mess does not suddenly evaporate into air just because you pray and hope it would. It never does. The world is about to learn why the Germans are so traumatized by the sound of this word, "inflation". Its one of the very few things where they indeed are right. And still, even Germany continue to spill fuel and gasoline into the fire. We could and should know it better.