[Skybird]

Practically all media now have agreed to the narrative that external forces of nature and previosu damage sot the dam alone could not have led to the breaching, and that the destruction results from an explsion form inside the dam. Together this rates as practical evidence, AFAICS, that the dem was indeed blown up by Russia, sinc eonly Russian troops had access to the dam in the past months. The amphibous assault attempt south of Cherson and the overall offensive of the ukriane, a swell as the historic porecedences, the deliberate planning of the Siovjat Union ti use dams as trioggerable obstacles againmst enemy attacks, anbd the genweral disrespect of Russia for human life, that of civilians and that of even its own soldiers alike, provide a convincing the motive.

However, a surprise this action cannot have been to anyone. I already asked about the dam last late summer when the Ukrainians had their first offensive out of the starting block. The Ukrainian authorities in plac obviously alos were not surprised, but had plans prepared in the past months.

In a bitter way this even could work for Ukraine in a scenario where they lack the power to retake ground by force and must try to retake Crimea by besieging it. If they then also destroy the Kerch bridge completely, no more sweet water will go into Crimea. Russian autorities say the regional reservoirs currently are filled to 80%, which means, translated from the Russian into realistic language, that it probably is less. The bad side of it: not only Russian occupiers will be thirsty, but civilians as well (many of them being pro-Russian, Crimea was, before the war, the only oblast where a clearly identified majority of people of I think around 56% were pro-Russian: to what degree this has changed upwards or downwards I have no clue, in Odessa for example even a huge majority of former pro-Russians were turned by Russian actions into strong supporters of the Ukrainian cause, and turned against Russia). Also, like flooding and washout from it, dry erosion also destroys fertile agricultural farmland, that once destroyed takes generations and generations to be rebuild. This also could be an explanation why the Russians destroyed the dam: because they expect to be not able to keep Crimea, so they leave just scorched earth.