[Skybird]

The historian Niall Ferguson in Die Welt. His arguments unfortunately tick at the same direction like my thought, too.
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The well-known historian Niall Ferguson believes that the U.S. made a major tactical mistake in the Ukraine war. His prognosis for Ukraine is therefore bitter. It also has to do with the West and the expectation of how it will behave toward Russia.

"The war is harder to end the longer it goes on. And it's getting harder by the week," says Niall Ferguson. The well-known Scottish historian is currently a professor at Havard University and has written numerous best-selling books on political and historical topics.

The problem from Ukraine's perspective here is that "unfortunately, time is working in Putin's favor." Although the Russian invasion was disastrous to begin with, "the more Ukraine is devastated," the harder it is for Kiev to win, Ferguson told " Welt " in an interview.

"Putin has bought time to change his strategy, and instead of conquering Kiev and occupying all of Ukraine, he has focused on the Donbass." Now Russia is waging "a war of attrition" without ceasefires, he said. "That plays into Putin's cards," Ferguson said.

But a major problem, he said, is also the question of future support from the West, especially the United States. The sticking point here: consistency. "The U.S. has already given $50 billion in aid to Ukraine. Will they give another 50 in the second half of the year? And next year?" asks Ferguson, making a grim prediction: "Putin knows that Western unity in defense of Ukraine has an expiration date."

War fatigue was already setting in among the West, he said. Moreover, Washington has made serious tactical mistakes, he said. "Joe Biden's administration did nothing to end this war early," Ferguson says. The reason: It believed it would be bad for Putin if the war lasted longer. However, she says, that did not materialize, nor did hopes for a Putin withdrawal or even a palace coup.

"In my opinion, this was a mistake and stupid," Ferguson criticized. "The war should have ended when Russia was doing badly and Ukraine was doing well." Instead of seeking an end to the war, he says, Biden flew to Poland, called Putin a war criminal and called for his overthrow. "Now it's too late. Russia is getting stronger and Ukraine is getting weaker." According to Ferguson, however, Biden would continue to rule out U.S. and NATO military intervention in Ukraine.

The historian also does not believe that Russia will give up because of the imposed sanctions. "I have never believed in the effectiveness of sanctions. As long as Russia can sell gas and oil, the ruble will remain strong and Russia will survive."

Instead, the expert predicts that the Russian food blockade will lead to inflation in the West and potentially famine in Africa. "This will only increase the pressure." The inevitable consequence, according to Ferguson: "In the fall, the West's resolve to support the war will weaken. The demand for Ukraine to make territorial concessions and the de facto partition of the country will begin."