NATO hopeful about impact of aid to Ukraine despite steady loss of ground
Ukrainian President Zelensky was especially relieved when the United States agreed after months to a $61 billion aid package for his country. At the same time, the situation on the front is deteriorating by the day. “Supplies are starting to come in, but the pace must be stepped up,” Zelenskyy said today. He received in Kyiv NATO chief Stoltenberg. The Norwegian acknowledged that the alliance has not delivered on its military promises, such as providing sufficient ammunition, in recent times. But that is now going to change, according to the secretary-general. “This is going to make a difference,” Stoltenberg referred to the U.S. aid package. “Just as the lack of support has also made a difference,” by which he was referring to the Russian advance in recent months.
The head of Ukraine's security service Kyrylo Budanov previously predicted that May and June are going to be a difficult period for Ukraine. After all, the Russian army has more weapons and manpower that are being fully deployed at this time, resulting in ground gains. Although fighting is going on all along the front, the fiercest fighting is focused mainly around Avdiivka and Khasiv Yar. “And that last place in particular is of strategic importance,” says former Army Commander in Chief Mart de Kruif. “If the Russians manage to capture that place, they can choose whether to push on to the west or deflect north toward Kharkiv. From Avdiivka you can only head west.”
The American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also sees the Ukrainian army retreating and Russia gaining ground in the regions around Avdiivka and Khasiv Yar. Still, it is thought that it will remain only relatively small pinpricks. “Ukrainian defences will not be overwhelmed, and the Russians will not overrun Ukraine.” Meanwhile, the ISW sees Ukraine sending additional troops toward Kharkiv to defend the city should the Russians decide to move toward Ukraine's second-largest city. Although, it is believed that the Russian army will not be able to completely capture the city. Around both Avdiivka and Chasiv Yar, the Russians are fighting with large divisions of up to ten thousand men and with great force. And so it makes sense to De Kruif that Ukraine is giving up ground. “The Ukrainians are not going to fight themselves to death here. They are not putting their people where they cannot win and are saving their forces for the big Russian offensive. Besides, the really big cities are still in Ukrainian hands, and they are behind a strong defence line. So Russia is gaining ground, but it is not a break-in, breakthrough or break-out,” De Kruif said.
The $61 billion in U.S. aid should give Ukraine more clout at the front. De Kruif thinks that could begin to happen in the near future. “The support is certainly not coming too late. The first shells have already arrived, and that will start to lead to a slower Russian advance. In addition, with those shells, they can inflict greater losses on the Russians.” “Actually, we are now in a phase where we are waiting for Western support to become effective, but where Ukraine is still forcibly giving up ground.” Although the momentum is now in the hands of the Russians, the predicted major offensive is, for now, delayed. Think tank ISW expects the offensive in late May, early June. Former commander De Kruif does not dare put his hand in the fire for it. “Such a major offensive you spend weeks and months planning. It's not a game where you push a button and it happens. It could be in a few weeks, or it could be in the summer. Such an offensive also depends on the weather.” In its daily report, the ISW writes that a well-supplied Ukrainian army should be able to stop this offensive. “But before all the support reaches the front, we could be weeks or months away,” de Kruif said.
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