[Skybird]

Russia now has 500,000 troops engaged in Ukraine, and could possibly send in another 300,000 this year. I think this would give them decisive advantages at places of their choice. We expect the mud period any time soon, but when the soil has dried again I think we will see a huge Russian offensive, possibly at Kupjansk where reports say the Russians have started to amass ever more forces. At the same time the ammunition situation has become desperate for Ukraine, there are indicationsn that at some parts of the front they just sit in their trenches and try to hold out wihtout any ammo at all. Artillery superiority is said to be beyond 6:1 along all the front of 1200km, so it is safe to assume that in some regions it is not as huge - for the benfit of front sectors of Russia's choice where their artillery ratio is even more advantageous. Ukraine also begs for Patriot missiles, their air defence has severely suffered due to lacking missile reserves, and so the damage done by Russia increases with every day and week, at growing pace as well.

Ukraine will not hold out over this year if things continue to move like this. They will need to give up very signficant amounts of ground, not just tactical withdrawels to stabilize the front. I fear we will see severe operational breakthroughs by Russia this summer and autumn. I think a breakdown of Ukrainian energy grid later this year is possible. This will almost kill their and some Europeans' ambitions to build defence factories on their own ground. Personally I think it is stupid by Europe to want to rebuild civilian structures and build factories while the air defences are growing weaker and weaker and the war still is raging. Lets build these factories for ammo and weapons near Ukraine but on NATO's side of the border so that Russia cannot take them out without opening war with NATO. But maybe that is right what NATO states do not want: raising the risk of a Russian attack or even just accident that would force them to stand by their treaty's words.