Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimbuna
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Oh, the tricky part is that the statement that 50% of the territories that have been conquered have been liberated again might well be true if one makes a simple graphical estimate of the territorial gains and losses since February 2022, as is given here:
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/F...e_animated.gif
Yes, roughly it looks to me as if it are 50% Ukraine has taken back.
The point is that the Russians' dramatic losses all concern the beginning of the invasion in February to April 2022, while today the 50% statement is used to give the impression that there have also been major Ukrainian successes in the 14 months since, and that the momentum of a year and a half ago still exists today.
It doesn't. It hasn't for a long time.
But maybe you're building ahead and preparing Ukrainians for a defeat by telling them, "We can't go any further, but at least we've won back 50%. Thats not everything, but it's something."
If you continue a war - with great self-destruction - for which you are not well enough prepared to win, then sooner or later the question of the moral legitimacy of continuing this war also arises at some point. In view of Putin's announcement that he intends to commit genocide, the seriousness of this concern is reduced, but since Putin must have realized that he will not be able to carry through his plans, at some point pragmatism on both sides will force the end of the current arms struggle. One does not want to call this peace, it is only a deep breath before the next war.
2024 or 2025, I think, will see the end of the current round.