Quote:
Originally Posted by Dargo
Russia’s average assault time to capture a town was like 55 days in their offensive last summer. It took Russia 10 months to move 13 km and Ukraine moving 10 km in 30 days.
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So what? Both events are not causally comparable.
And btw, if Ukraine continues to move at that pace, they will need another 8-9 months to reach the coast. Its just that their offensove cannot hold its breath that long. Nor can its soldiers. At the current rate, there will be no soldiers form ther attack brigades left in 8-9 months.
Okay, black humour off.
What counts is the total remaining strength of Ukraine and the current loss ratio. The rest is mathematics. Industrial war IS mathematics. Russia can afford high losses, Ukraine not so well. They feel the many lacks already now.
They need a decisive breakthrough within the next 4-6 weeks, I say. If by then they still linger around with only the outpost line before the first defence line, a new round of fixed trench warfare will begin, favouring Russia.
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I hope that Putin stays wehre he is, and stay salive. If he goes away in any way, the risk is that he will be replaced with somebody as brutal -
but of more military competence. The last thing Ukraine needs is a competent military leader in the Kremlin, a new Shukov for example.