[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

The NYT gets quoted with remarks on that the Ukrainians have so far pushed 8 of 95 km until the coast of the Asov Sea. Its further said that in the mminent future the Ukrianaisn managed to drop their own losses in vehicles and heavy equipment to 10% (whate ver timnefreame that covers). That obviously means that before, their losses were signficantly above 10%.

I would not be surprised if somebody comes up and shows that they have so far lost in total a quarter of their attack force. Maybe even more.

Their loss ratio is what concerns me most.


87 km to go.

Russia’s average assault time to capture a town was like 55 days in their offensive last summer. It took Russia 10 months to move 13 km and Ukraine moving 10 km in 30 days.

Originally Posted by Phillips P. OBrien

Just yesterday the New York Times jumped back into this narrative with an article about how Ukraine’s offensive had slowed after the initial losses. Once again it focussed on what happened in the opening 10 days, when it was shown what should have come as no suprise—that vehicles are very vulnerable on the battlefield. This article even recycled the one picture of a large group of Ukrainian vehicles disabled together that Russian sources endlessly reuse—even though it is a month old. All I will say about this is that the Ukrainian offensive has not ‘slowed’. The risky vehicle assaults have been dialled down and the campaign to destroy Russian artillery, ammunition and command and control has been accelerated. Indeed this campaign seems to be getting major Ukrainians resources, and is starting to show some results. Ukrainian counter-battery fire (amongst other things) seems to be taking an extremely heavy toll of Russian artillery and Russian capabilities are degrading.

At the same time, Ukrainians are making small, but sensible advances, both around Bakhmut and then as reported last night, in the central front. Crucially—they are fighting these campaigns while keeping their own losses down. This is where the Ukraine is slow narrative makes little sense. Ukraine is being smart, not slow. As the New York Times article showed, at first Ukrainian vehicle losses were high, maybe 20% in the first two weeks, but then they dropped by half. This is important. Though the Ukrainians are fighting this counteroffensive and are taking a heavy toll on Russian artillery, they have reduced their own losses. This is a sign of success not failure. So, please dont obsess about lines on the map now—what Ukraine is doing, as Ive been saying for months, is really hard. It will take time. Lets see where we are nearer the end of the summer. My strong guess is that the Ukrainian counteroffensive will not be seen as a failure.
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com...update37?sd=pf

Phillips P. OBrien
Professor of Strategic Studies, University of St Andrews - Scotland, Author: How the War was Won, and Second Most Powerful Man in the World. Editor in Chief, War in History