And then Zelensky decided to scrap his first plan: the months-long preparation of the Ukrainian counterattack
At breakneck speed, the Ukrainian army captured thousands of square kilometers of territory from the Russians in recent days. But to what extent was this really a surprise? Behind the scenes, Kiev had been working out the plans for months, with the help of the United States. Months ago, the strategy behind Ukraine's rapid military victories in recent days was already taking shape. That happened, US officials say, in a series of intensive talks between Ukrainian and US officials on how to proceed with the war.
The counteroffensive - which was readjusted this summer after emergency consultations between senior U.S. and Ukrainian representatives - has exceeded expectations. Ukrainian forces have destroyed the Russian command and appear poised to cash in on their advance in the northeast and another operation in the south. Work began shortly after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told his generals that he wanted to make a dramatic move to show that his country could push back the Russian invasion. Under his command, the Ukrainian army designed a plan for a broad assault in the south to recapture Kherson and cut off Mariupol from Russian forces in the east. Ukrainian generals and U.S. officials believed that such a large-scale attack would result in enormous casualties and that it would fail to recapture large swaths of territory quickly. The Ukrainians were already losing hundreds of soldiers a day in what had become a murderous conflict. Russian forces suffered similar losses, but continued on, destroying Ukrainian cities in the eastern Donbas region.
The Ukrainian commanders, long reluctant to share details of their plans, began to open up more to U.S. and British intelligence officials and asked for advice. Jake Sullivan, the U.S. national security adviser, and Andrii Jermak, a top adviser to Zelensky, have discussed planning the counteroffensive several times, according to a senior government official. General Mark Milley, chairman of the U.S. Army Summit, and senior Ukrainian military leaders regularly discussed intelligence and military support. In Kiev, Ukrainian and British military officials continued to work together while the new U.S. defense attaché, Garrick Harmon, held daily talks with top Ukrainian officers. Time was of the essence, American and Ukrainian officials believed. For an effective counterattack, the Ukrainians had to act before the first snow, because then Russian President Vladimir Putin could use his control over gas supplies to pressure Europe. This account of the run-up to the counteroffensive is based on interviews with several senior U.S. representatives and others who knew about the secret talks between Washington and Kiev. These were conversations that helped Ukrainian commanders shape the battle. Many talked to us on condition of anonymity.
American officials were hesitant to assess the full impact of the counteroffensive, wanting to see how it progresses. For now, at least, Kiev has the upper hand. During an exercise this summer, things looked different. In it, U.S. and Ukrainian officials tested the potential success of a broad offensive in the south. The exercise, CNN reported, made it appear that such an offensive would fail. Armed with American skepticism, Ukrainian military personnel returned to Zelensky. It would prove - in retrospect - to be a decisive moment. "We conducted modeling and a series of tabletop exercises," said Colin Kahl, the Pentagon's policy chief, in a telephone interview. "That series of exercises suggested that certain avenues for a counteroffensive were likely to be more successful than others. We gave that advice, the Ukrainians took that and came to their own decision." The stakes were enormous. Ukraine had to show that this was not going to be yet another frozen conflict AND that it could retake territory from the Russians, which is important for the morale of its people and to increase support from the West. During August, at the urging of the Ukrainians, U.S. officials provided increasing information on the position of Russian forces, revealing weaknesses in Russian lines. The intelligence also indicated that Moscow would struggle to quickly reinforce its forces in northeastern Ukraine or move troops from the south, even as it discovered Ukrainian preparations for the counteroffensive. "We saw that the Russians were moving many of their best troops south in preparation for the other counteroffensive that the Ukrainians were conducting," said Kahl of the Pentagon. "So we had reason to believe that because of continued moral challenges and pressure from the Ukrainians, parts of the Russian military may be a bit more fragile than they appear on paper."
Instead of one major offensive, the Ukrainian army proposed two. With one, in Kherson, the concentration of Russian troops would likely take days or weeks to see spectacular results. The other was planned for the Kharkiv region. Britain, the United States and Ukraine evaluated the new plan together and tried to simulate it again. This time, officials from the three countries agreed that it would work, and that it would give Zelensky what he wanted: a big, clear victory. But the plan depended entirely on the size and speed of additional U.S. military aid, according to a General Staff officer in Kiev. Ukraine, a former Soviet republic that until recently had used only older Soviet weapons, had largely used up its own ammunition. Learning to use new weapons systems in the midst of war is difficult. But so far that risky move has proved successful. For example, more than 800,000 155-millimeter cartridges have been sent to Kiev. The United States alone has pledged more than $14.5 billion in military aid since the war began in February.
Before the counteroffensive, Ukrainian forces sent the U.S. a detailed list of weapons they needed to make the plan work, a Ukrainian officer said. Specific weapons, such as the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), have an extraordinary impact on the battlefield. The satellite-guided missiles fired by these launch vehicles, called GMLRS, each contain a warhead containing 200 pounds of explosives. They have been used by Ukrainian forces in recent weeks to destroy more than four hundred Russian weapons depots, command posts and other targets, according to U.S. officials. More recently, Ukrainian forces have used US-supplied HARM missiles for air strikes against Soviet-designed MiG-29 fighter jets. No air force had ever done so before. The missiles proved particularly effective in destroying Russian radars. "We see real and measurable progress in Ukraine's use of these systems," General Milley said last week in Germany at a meeting of 50 countries assisting Ukraine with military and humanitarian aid. "The Russians are having great difficulty resupplying their troops and compensating for their combat losses." Ukrainian and American officials argue that weekly or biweekly announcements of new arms deliveries by the Pentagon give confidence to top commanders in Kiev to plan complex, simultaneous offensives.
"The importance of Western military support lies not just in specific weapons systems, but in the security and confidence it gives the Ukrainians," said Jack Watling, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London. He recently returned from Ukraine. "That is precisely what they can use in their planning." As Ukrainian soldiers entered areas in the northeast last weekend, Russian troops collapsed. In some places around Kharkiv, Russian soldiers simply walked away from the battle, leaving their equipment and ammunition behind, according to U.S. officials. The attack on Kherson, according to people aware of the plan, was not a feint or a diversion. And it succeeded in forcing Moscow to postpone mock referendum on whether parts of the Kherson region want to join Russia. But as expected, the counteroffensive there is proceeding more slowly, given the much larger number of Russian troops opposite in Kharkiv.
Ultimately, Ukrainian officials believe, their long-term success depends on objectives that were in the first, rejected strategy. Consider recapturing the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia, cutting off Russian forces in Mariupol and pushing back Russian forces in Kherson across the Dnipro River, U.S. officials say. Russia is weakened. That the Russian army did not notice the buildup of Ukrainian troops around Kharkiv shows that it does not have solid intelligence. The army has been decimated and is struggling to resupply its troops, giving Ukraine an opportunity in the coming weeks, according to U.S. officials. Although Ukraine has the opportunity to retake more territory in the east, U.S. and Ukrainian officials say the south is the main battleground.
"Kherson and Zaporizhzhia are probably potential targets," said Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at CNA, a defense research institute. "We suspect we will see further operations by the Ukrainian military there." The plan that emerged from summer talks leaned heavily on U.S. intelligence and high-tech weapons. But American officials stress that credit for the offensive belongs entirely to Zelensky and the Ukrainian military, which led a relatively small force in Kharkiv to an extraordinary victory. "No one can declare victory yet" says Kahl. But, he adds, "I do think this really shows the world that the Ukrainians are capable of conducting complex, offensive operations."
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