[Skybird]

Me too thinks the US is not really capable or determined to defend Taiwan, I say since years that I would take an American naval victory not for granted even if the war would take place, and the balances are shifting constantly in China'S favour, militarily. I admit already now I would pout my money on China. They still run an incredible arms boosting program, whereas the US struggles to keep its goals for ship and submarine numbers on the levels projected for the coming 20 years. The Ukraine war teaches China that they must strike the first attack much tougher than they probably previously assumed. The war is delayed, but when it then comes, imo inevitably, it will be starting even "louder", much more devastating and destructive. The task to get troops acroiss the strait, take the beaches and then take the diffiocult gegraphy of Taiwan, is huge, but I think if you have the willingness to use the ammounts of destruction and brute forces needed to simply wipe out what is there, they can do it. With horrendous losses, "but that is no problem".


I do not trust the US capability anymore to effectively use its carriers in the to be expected combat theatres. The Chinese will start the war not as long as they cannot guarantee to keep the carriers too far away - or destroy them.



Xi is obsessed with nationalism as so many autocratic leaders of his kind are, including Putin, and wants reunfication, no matter in which way, until 2049, some historic thing that is for him and China. He also has given orders for readjusting the economic orientation towards becoming much less dependent from foreign investors and cooperations, and become more autark, that is a lesson he probably learns also from the current war, from Russia'S example. When China one day starts to the war, we can assume, I think, it will be far less vulnerable for sanctions than Russia. And even Russia now does not see its war fighting affected by the sanctions.



The Taiwanese morale and support for its armed forces I ealrier this year red to have substantially suffered in recent years, they have equipmment of thi quality and that quanitty, but the willingness of volunteer d to dinate themsekves to the cause was describe din that analysis to be questionable. Hard to preidct what comes of that when China gets real, but the needed training and experience gathering in the years before that boiling point obviously will be missing then.



China wants Taiwan, and they will prefer to completely destroy it and all its industrial assets to letting it live independently. This is what the West must understand: the Chinese ambition has little to do with conquering industrial assets and economic gains, its about subjugation alone - and if the slave refuses to kneel: his execution.



We need to become far more independent from Taiwan in high tech production like we need to become in dependent from the pharmaceutical production in India. Currently, we beg everybody to blackmail us.



We should work with maximum urgency to turn Taiwan into a place that is over and over pickled with ASMs and SAMs. Much more than there are now.



And Europe? Cannot handle the Russians alone, so when America is bound in Asia, its currenty problems will even widen fundamentally. The only thing that can prevcent this is a Russia that weklanes itseldf due to inner collapse. They all wish for that to happen. They all try to conjure exaclty this scenario. So far I do not see it happening, so far its wishful thinking.



The EU wanst to play at the boig table, but it cannot and never will be. Europe's historic cycle in world history is in decline, and steeply so now. Its a secondary, minor player only.