[Dargo]

'Fall of Sievierodonetsk is symbolic setback'; attack on Sunday of Kiev because of G7 summit.
Last weekend's missile attacks on Kiev were probably meant to send a signal to the G7 countries meeting in Germany yesterday. "The Russian method" every time there are international events, there is an escalation. Militarily, it makes no sense for the Russians to attack Kiev. Apartment complexes and kindergartens were hit, that has no meaning militarily. It's not like the positions at that summit will change because the Russians are bombing Kiev.

Russians no longer have an offensive capability to attack areas outside the Donbas region. Much of the Donbas is already in Russian hands. Taking Sievierodonetsk, in the Lugansk region, is primarily a symbolic setback for Ukraine rather than a military-strategic gain for the Russians. The Russians mainly use a lot of long-range artillery to gain ground. They do this with very small steps per day. For Ukrainians there was nothing left but to retreat, it is that or be totally destroyed. The only tactic the Russians have left because they have virtually no infantry left. They fall back on old tactics like they had in Grozny in Chechnya: shoot everything down from a long distance. It is therefore important to Ukraine that long-range weapons from the West be delivered quickly. Because if you can take away that advantage from the Russians, they are vulnerable, they can then no longer move forward with a huge fire roll step by step.

The expectation now is that the Russians will target Lysychansk, which lies opposite Sievierodonetsk on the Donetsk River. It is the last city in the region, if they control it, they will have the whole region of Lugansk. Lysychansk hasn't been conquered just yet, because they have trouble crossing the river. They go all the way around the city, just to avoid crossing the river, this is quite a task for the army. This is not to say that the entire Donbas will be taken soon. The center of gravity is now in Lugansk, the Russians cannot easily put their heavy weapons anywhere else. That would require a difficult logistical operation, and the Russians know they would be vulnerable. Cities such as Kramatorsk and Slovyansk would also have to be conquered, and we are a long way from that point.