[Skybird]

The Ukrainian armed forces use many Soviet-designed weapons systems. But supplies for them are drying up. This makes support from Western armaments all the more urgent.

When Ukraine was finally supported with heavy weapons for its defensive struggle in the Donbass, the initial focus was on older stocks from former Warsaw Pact member states: tanks from Poland, howitzers from the Czech Republic, rifled guns from Estonia. Even the ring exchanges, through which Germany aims to provide indirect assistance to Ukraine by supplying Western armaments to its NATO partners in the east, effectively mean that older Eastern European military equipment is reaching the front lines.

The reason for this approach is obvious: The Ukrainian armed forces, many of whose existing equipment dates back to Soviet times, are familiar with this armaments technology. The weapons supplied therefore require no additional training for Ukrainian troops and are compatible with the systems the Ukrainians already have in service.

This also applies to the ammunition. This is because Soviet or Russian artillery pieces cannot be loaded with NATO projectiles due to their different calibers. An important part of the U.S.-coordinated arms assistance to Ukraine therefore consisted of procuring ammunition and replacement material for the Ukrainian army from allied or friendly countries worldwide. But this is becoming increasingly difficult.

The deputy head of Ukraine's military intelligence service, Vadim Skibitsky, told the British Guardian on Friday that Ukrainian artillery was almost exclusively using NATO ammunition with a caliber of 155 millimeters. The somewhat smaller calibers according to the Russian standard (152 millimeters) are hardly available anymore, he said. As a result, the corresponding artillery pieces are also losing their usefulness. "Everything depends on what the West gives us," Skibizki is quoted as saying in the Guardian.

The statements cannot be verified. Ukraine's civilian and military leadership communicates very skillfully to emphasize its demand for more support. However, Skibizki's descriptions coincide with other reports.

The AFP news agency quotes a U.S. government official as saying that it is almost impossible to find material compatible with Russian technology. He is likely referring to those markets to which the U.S. and its allies have access. Russia, the largest producer, does not make its armaments available to the enemy.

It is true that there are arms companies in NATO countries that produce ammunition for weapons to Russian standards, for example in Slovakia or Bulgaria. But obviously their capacities are not sufficient for the enormous consumption on the battlefields of eastern Ukraine. Skibizki of the Ukrainian military intelligence service says that his country's armed forces ship 5,000 to 6,000 artillery shells every day.

Ukraine has hardly any production capacity of its own, although the country had a significant arms industry before the war. The Russian army targeted it right after the war began. As early as the end of March, Olexi Arestovich, an advisor to President Selensky, said that Ukraine's defense industry had been virtually destroyed.
Crass imbalance on the battlefield

This means that Ukraine is even more dependent on Western equipment for the artillery fight in the Donbass, which is increasingly turning into a battle of attrition. Although training for Ukrainian soldiers and trainers has been underway for weeks in several Western countries, handling the unfamiliar systems is sometimes a challenge.

But the biggest problem from the Ukrainian perspective remains the imbalance on the battlefield. According to intelligence officer Skibitsky, there are ten to fifteen Russian artillery pieces for every Ukrainian artillery piece in eastern Ukraine. This probably includes a lot of obsolete equipment. Nevertheless, the Russian superiority is overwhelming.

Presidential adviser Arestovich, for example, recently said that his country would need at least 60 multiple rocket launchers to halt the slow but steady Russian advance. That is many times what Washington and London have pledged so far.

The fight is also exacting an ever-higher blood toll. President Selensky said last week that 60 to 100 Ukrainian servicemen and women were falling every day. His adviser Mikhailo Podolyak on Thursday even spoke of 100 to 200 dead a day. Reports from the front seem to confirm the high casualties. On the Russian side, too, the war is likely to claim many, perhaps even more, victims. Both warring parties are silent about the exact death toll.

https://www.nzz.ch/international/kam...aus-ld.1688267