Originally Posted by Skybird
The war is going well for Putin at the moment, for almost 2 weeks. The sanctions don't bother him, the losses also not, the army knocks everything down and reaches locally numerical superiority of 7:1 to 11:1, I read. The advance is slow but steady.
The Russians have obviously learned their lesson. Unfortunately.
But whether that translates into "war success" in the long run remains to be seen. After all, what territory and cities they conquer, they must then be able to hold, against Ukrainians who resort to asymmetric warfare and partisan warfare.
The narrative, according to which the advantages slowly shift back in favor of Ukraine the longer the war lasts, because they are getting more and more fire supeirority, I also do not believe uncritical, because this requires the delivery of heavy weapons, fast and steadily. The USA may stay involved - but Europe? France, Germany? Deutschland has not delivered anything at all for 10 weeks, not even light weapons. Paris and Berlin seem willing to accept a Russian dictatorial peace. They could betray Ukraine by forcing it to sign one through lack of arms deliveries - for lack of ammunition and weapons. Hopefully, Washington will steer against that. And hopefully the war will be over before there is the next presidential election in the uSA. And these start already a year before the election date, paralysing policy-making significantly.
It is once again a sad fact: without America, nothing works. An indictment of the Europeans.
But even if Ukraine "wins" in the end, it will have to deal with a destroyed industrial structure in the east and severe damage in countless cities and throughout the country. How this will continue, I dare not predict. The global economic and financial environment is deteriorating rapidly and drastically. The ukraine can maybe win - and still lose.
There is one winner. And that is surprisngly neither China, nor Russia - but America. China is stumbling, tackled by its superman Xi and his stubborn totalitarianism, covid lockdowns and lurching economy, its not material but verbal support for Russia and its aggressiveness in Asia, which leads to a strengthening of resistance in the region, giving China visibly problems, which a year or two ago no one wanted to suspect. Russia has prevented the modernization of its economy for more decades to come, is a pariah, ultimately abandoned by China, which only pays lip confessions. Europe - has left itself behind. The U.S., on the other hand, is once again pushing its global dominance, economically, diplomatically, militarily, even financially. It is unbelievable! And in this environment: good.
A German analyst in an editorial this morning interpreted the massive Russian numerical superiority in the Donbass battles as a sign of military weakness, and I think he is right. He argued that a ratio of 3:1 to 4:1 is expected for successful offensives, and that if the Russians are now massing 7:1 to 11:1, it probably means that they estimate the combat strength of their units to be so low that this enormous over-massing of forces is needed to compensate. Given the terroitorial challenges Russia faces elsewhere in its empire, the huge loss of prestige and the obvious combat weakness of the Russian army is another long-term problem that could cause Russia headaches in the future. If others no longer take you seriously, how can you deter them from challenging you?
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