[Skybird]

FOCUS writes:


The shock was great on February 1. The level in German gas storage facilities had fallen to just 36.9 percent, a low for that time. A 2015 study had warned of precisely this scenario: In an analysis for the German Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology, the auditing firm Becker Büttner Held had determined at the time that a filling level of 40 percent was needed on February 1 of each year to survive an extreme cold period of more than seven days.

What only complicates the situation in German gas storage facilities is that the Federal Republic is highly dependent on gas imports, with just over 50 percent of all supplies coming from Russia. This means that geopolitics is once again becoming a concrete factor for German heaters. This is because Russia's President Vladimir Putin seems determined to unleash a war in Ukraine.

The Europeans will most likely respond with tough economic sanctions. It is no longer out of the question that Moscow will cut off its gas supplies in response - even if it then has to forego valuable revenues. Will German supplies be sufficient in this case?

Yes, the German government is increasingly convinced of that. According to current calculations, Germany should probably be able to get through the winter even if Russia were to cut off its natural gas supplies completely, according to sources in the Ministry of Economics who told FOCUS Online. First the "mirror" had reported.

According to the report, the ministry and the German government are optimistic for two reasons. First, thanks to mild weather, Germany also consumed less gas in February than feared. January was already unusually warm for this time of year. And secondly, the Federal Republic was in a position to purchase so-called liquid gas in sufficient quantities to make up for any shortfalls.

In fact, German storage levels fell even more slowly in February than in January. According to the European Association of Gas Storage Operators, German reserves were still 31.07 percent full on Sunday, with daily net withdrawals averaging only half as much as in January.

The slightly relaxed situation allows the German government to take a more decisive stance toward Russia: At noon on Tuesday, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) announced that certification of the German-Russian Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline would be halted for the time being. "And without this certification, after all, Nord Stream 2 cannot go into operation," Scholz said.

The controversial project has repeatedly brought the German government criticism from its Western partners, but Germany had always defended it as economically necessary. Now, however, the about-face: Scholz said he had ordered an investigation into how Germany's energy supplies could also be secured in this way. "The situation is now different."

However: the prerequisite for optimism about gas stocks is that temperatures are roughly in line with the long-term average, according to ministry circles. That means: In the case of a longer cold wave all calculations would be for the ton. But how likely is a cold March?

"Winter in Europe is not quite over yet," says weather expert Jan Schenk from The Weather Channel (TWC) to FOCUS Online, "But we can already say that there will be no more extreme cold spell. Because we know from history that a warm spring follows when the polar vortex is as strong as it is this year." And, Schenk adds, "In this case, climate change is helping us. It's getting significantly too warm."

Paradoxically, this very climate change also offers Germany the chance to free itself from dependence on Russian gas. This is because a rapid expansion of renewable energies, which climate change makes necessary anyway, also reduces the demand for fossil resources such as gas. According to the ministry, the expansion of wind and solar energy must now be resolutely pursued in order to break away from Russian gas. With a series of legislative initiatives, the house of Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) wants to open up new areas for renewable energies this year.

In the medium term, however, Germany will remain dependent on Russia. Even if Germany can survive this winter without Russian gas, that says nothing about future winters. For example, what will we do in the winter of 2023, when gas stocks have yet to recover from 2022, with wholesale prices still running hot? "Normalizing storage levels by next winter will be difficult if Russia does not change its gas policy," says Steffen Bukold, a political scientist and energy policy consultant. The Ministry of Economics therefore wants to expand German capacities for liquefied natural gas, among other things.

Should Russia completely stop its gas deliveries, Europe would indeed get through the winter, concluded an analysis by the European economic think tank Bruegel as early as the beginning of February. But if Moscow were to stop supplying gas in the coming winters as well, "it would be harder for the EU to cope." Replacing Russian supplies elsewhere "would be very expensive at best and physically impossible at worst," the Bruegel analysis says.

And in a sense, Putin is already turning off the gas tap, at least ever so slightly. According to industry representatives, Russia's state-owned natural gas company Gazprom is currently meeting its supply obligations. But so-called gas flow data from the Association of European Transmission System Operators show that Gazprom is also not making any effort to send additional gas into the pipelines, even though it would currently find a good buyer price.

"Not a cubic meter more arrives with us than is stipulated in the contracts," EU Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis told Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland on Tuesday. "And Russia is doing nothing to alleviate the current complicated energy situation in the EU." Asked whether Russia could use its natural gas as a political weapon in the wake of the current tensions, the deputy to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen replied, "That can happen."

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)