Winter war
I think the Russians will invade before spring turns the ground to mud. That is why they are at the borders, to move very soon.
They will take Ukraine, a job unfinished, started in Crimea. Putin had to be sure the US was so messed up (2 years now) that he would not be interfered with. Note too the Chinese are stirring the pot.
The arms to Ukraine are a token. Nato countries bordering the East were getting nervous, rightfully too. Putin has plans to put the old Soviet Union back in place. He never expected his demands to be met on Ukraine. He is building excuses to move.
Like last time, he will likely use insurgents and/or infiltrators to stir up Ukraine. He can then say he has to protect Russians there who are under attack. Same as last time.
Add to that cyber attacks and misinformation campaigns around the world. He has been planning this for a while. Who is next, Poland?
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