[Skybird]

The West "missed the bus" much earlier, that was when thinking that history had come to an end (Fukuyama) after the cold war was "won" and one thought one could afford to ignore the Russians and one crept NATO eastward after giving them verbal reassurances and promises that exactly this would not be done if they would play ball and agree to a neutral buffering zone build by former Sovjet vasalls. That was one of their preconditions to play ball, and American and Western diplomats verbally reassured them that this would be honoured. when The Bsaltic sttaes and Poland asked for emmberhsip, they could ask, but the Wets had any right there is not only to say yes, but also to say No. And the latter was what maybe we should have done as long as the Russians honoured their part of this "gentlemen's agreement". Instead, we cheated therm. This betrayal, as the Russians - imo rightfully - see this, was not just a geopolitical weakening of Russia (which was known and wanted in Washington), and a loss of face and reputationb and thus a nice opportunity to take "revenge" for whatever, but also a big narcissistic offence, an injuring of their selfunderstanding that really hurt their ego. And it was completely unneeded. Russia was down for quiet some years, it was weak. We should have swallowed our laughter and feelings of triumph, but step back and leave them the time to get their acts together without us abuzsing their wekaness. There was an opportunity to not only sow some seeds, but also maybe seeing them blossoming, who knows, but Western capitols decided that it was not enough, they wanted more. I remidn of that in the years when Pution had took over form drunken Yeltzin, his politics towards Europe were VERY differently, and in the West he was celebrated as a new Alexander who sought to close ranks with Europe. After his speech - in German, if I recall correctly, in the Bundestag, hearts flew to him. And I think he meant serious what he offered. At leats he had the hpe that it could work. And then came the big Russian desillusionizing.

And here we are where we are today. Comepletly innocent in how things came, we are not. We certainly did your foul share, too.


Nevertheless, today we have no other chance anymore than to learn to play tough again.


We expected the Russians to endlessly be stupid and to endlessly act to their disadvantage. We thought Russian interests get lab-designed by Western philantropists and ideologoists and capitalistic predators, and that democracy would be a beacon that all world, also the islamic world, wants inevitably to follow. We were full of and we were drunk of ourselves, and we had made the idea that somebody does not want to share the shine of our glory, unimaginable. Iraq 2003 was a result of this overconfidence. Its beyond our comprehesion that maybe others do not share our self-definition of that we are the greatets, the finest, and the most admired ones. What many others indeed want, and only want fromus, is money. Our ideas they often wish we would keep for ourselves. That is especially true in the Islamic world.

That is no one-sided excusing of Russia that I want to do here. I just try to be realistic, and try to see things from their side, and try to see Wetsern self-defionition a bit more sober, and realistic. We do not define what Russia's interests were, and are, and we often define these Russian interests according to our selfinterests. And this, until today, is the biggest mistake we ever made with Russia. It hinders Europeans until today to realise what now angry and willing-to-fight beast they are now dealing with. Russia defines its interests all by itself, and it does not ask us for our approval. Its strong and autark enough not to need to.

There never was a realistic chance to bring the Ukraine into the EU or NATO. I say since many years that back in the past and now in the present, the starting of such an association process would inevitably bring the Russian into attack mode, they would and they will start a war before this process could ever be completed. That the Ukraine becomnes a NAOT member was unacceptable for them already back then, for reasons of strategy, identity, cult and culture, and history. Its like Russian missiles on Cuba - the US would never have accepted that. You want Russia to invade the Ukraine in full, now or back then? Starting to bring it into NATO is the 100% fail safe method to get what you want.