Quote:
Originally Posted by Buddahaid
It did more than flatten the curve, it bought time to get vaccinations made and distributed so that herd immunity could be attained with the minimum of deaths and the vaccinations are proven to be effective against the mutations as well so far.
Besides no one really knows what it would have been like to just let the virus run amok but we do know what it was like in Italy before lockdowns.
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The question in the back of my mind is what happens regarding the ability to create vaccines when this coronavirus becomes endemic and mutates more and more? Have we screwed ourselves into requiring annual boosters? No one likely knows for sure because there isn't any long term data. The flu vaccine isn't a good analogue because it's currently right around only 40% efficacious on average.
Except we probably *do* know what letting it just run amok might haven't looked like - Hong Kong Flu hit in 68 - a virulent H3N2 flu. It waned in late 69 going into 1970. It's now a seasonal strain. It initially had an IFR of 0.2% with top-end estimates of 4 million dead.
Best estimates for COVID are IFR 0.15% with around 4 million dead. Not a bad comparison to study between this and HK Flu.
The "problem" is the methodology in 68 wasn't as accurate to do the estimating. The other "problem" is all of the COVID data is a mess - combinations of cases counted multiple times for the same person, cases counted using extremely high Ct values, cases counted that are asymptomatic. It also is tainted by "died with" cases listed as "died from" where the frail and elderly might have been immunocompromised enough that they also picked up flu, c. diff., secondary bacterial pneumonia, etc. and it was never treated for.
Here's a recent article on covid IFR estimates:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33768536/