If you can elaborate on the statement Ikalugin I will be all ears, but here is how I came to make the assessment as well as draw conclusions from the sources and facts from open source.
Each year the US DOD issues a report on China they do the same on Russia as well, I follow these open reports with interest I’m also party to closed reports in some cases.
Knowing what I know in the background due to some background influences and my professional capacity, I know I am able to look at the logistical capabilities and make an assessment using the open source.
With the current hull count standing at nearly 500 vessels which we would consider major surface units those being CV, LPD/H/A, CG, DDG, FFG as being ocean going and able to operate globally.
You can see there is a large gulf between coastal / EEZ focus and global power projection just using the numbers.
Now lets look at submarines. Currently China has some 79 vessels also play a vital role in the mix, currently what we are looking at is around 60 boats which are conventionally powered, given our known knowledge of operations with conventional boats as well as witnessing how the Chinese employ their submarines it Is clear that the 60 conventional boats will not make a global appearance in combat rather, they would be limited to extended EEZ operations and sea denial missions.
This is almost the same as the later stages of the cold war with the Soviet Union which used the Bastion concept.
Now to judge global capability you need to look at the logistics, why is the USA the most powerful on earth right now? Its simple logistics, same as the UK was pre-1945.
If you don’t have logistics you don’t have conflict and this is where the assessment of capability comes in.
Currently when we look at the numbers China employs some 255 auxiliaries most of which are limited to coastal or EEZ waters and come un under 2,000tons.
With that in mind what they do have is some 25 large ocean-going vessels that can work with a battle group, but again we run into another issue and that is who re supplies the supply vessels.
China over the last decade has been making alliances in and around the world using a lot of soft power, this gives them access to ports around the world, Pakistan and Mauritius in the Indian ocean, Djibouti and Eritrea in the Red Sea so on so forth.
Is 25 enough? Not really for a sustained battle group action well beyond your shores, what China has right now is the capability to send out an expeditionary strike force for a small extended deployment.
But it is clear the Chinese are building up to become a tier 1 blue water navy, they are not quite there yet, if you look at the Todd and Lindburg classification you can see in Tier 1 is the USN followed in tier 2 by the French and British then in tier 3 China.
Why did I make the statement they are creating a sea denial force?
That’s simple right now China knows it would be hard going to react or counter the USN and her allies platform for platform on the world stage, right now she needs to focus on her home waters and region dominance.
Thus right now she is creating or more finishing off creating a sea denial force, it’s the reason why a lot of the auxiliaries are small, and the submarines are bulked out by conventional boats, plus there’s a large contingent of small surface craft.
Will there be a shift from sea denial to global superpower?
Honestly with the way its going yes I believe so but I don’t see that shift taking place much before 2040, China has a lot of catching up to do and a lot of building to do, what we see is they are capable of the building but are they capable of the deployment and making it work that remains to be seen.
Right now China is focused on maintaining sea denial forces while building up its global power base.
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