Well, they've got a semi-truce until 20:00 local time today (18:00GMT), whilst negotiations take place between the opposition and the leaders. It looks like they were able to put out a lot of the tyre fires that were burning last night when I went to bed, but there's still a lot of people hanging around.
Skybird makes a very good point though in the fact that the country is split between those in the city and those in the countryside (not to mention the traditional east/west split) and there has been a disproportionate media focus on the urban areas to the neglect of the countryside, but well, you know how the media is, they go where it's on fire.
The key part of any successful uprising or struggle though is what side the military falls on, and given how this is localised to Kiev, I imagine that the military is going to be hedging its bets in favour of the current government, as such, aside from possible localised defections, the army and police will remain loyal to Yanukovich, and that means that this uprising will fail. The main question being, can Klitschko bluff some measure of compromise before Yanukovichs patience runs out, and can Yanukovich dismantle the protests without making himself a pariah state in the eyes of the west (although given that he's a pro-Russian man, that's probably not that high on his agenda, but still, it helps to keep both sides happy).
I predict a compromise may be reached, early elections perhaps, but Yanukovich will not stand down, he will run again, and if he has the support in the rest of the country that we think he has, he will win again, and then we'll be back at square one and we'll have to see where that leads.
If Betonov reads this thread, how are things in the Ukraine being watched by the anti-government sentiment in Slovenia? If this uprising does, by some miracle, succeed in its goal, could you see it inspiring further uprisings in Slovenia?
|