China fires carrier-killing missiles in south Chinese sea
 

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/28/a...cli/index.html


Its not just the missiles, but also ther sensors and intel means to detect US carriers. It is grossly negligent to still simply assume that the Chinese may have the missiles but cannot hit anything with them because they could not find and detect their targets at sea.



My trust in ship-mounted anti-missile systems and anti-ICBM systems, is limited. Both "flooding" the air with missiules as well as technological sophistication can defeat these. And China can fire a new barrage much faster than American ships with empty magazines can replenish.



Hongkong was taken with zero reistence worth the name by Western nations. The next conquests will be Taiwan and the ressource fields in the South Chinese Sea. And I don't put my money on the USN - since years already. Overwhelming numbers have their own charm.

Long gone are the days when you could send a gunboat into a harbour or up river to impose your will on others.

And yes, it is probably only a matter of time (how long I don't know) before Taiwan will be brought to heel.

Nowadays you build an armada of dozens if not hundreds of coast guard boats and send them into the territorial waters of neighbouring states to harass their fishing boats in their own waters, our you send a combat fleet and air forc einto internaitonal waters, buzild artifical islands there and then claim it to be yours due to the islands you have just created.

Gunboat policies still work. You just need more than just one boat, but many. The inti8dmation effects that chian acchieves reahc far and make prctaiclly all countries in asia, including Australia, to caution their words and deeds and to appease the mighty gunboat owner.


Whether the US would indeed will full conventional war with china over Taiwan or the South Chinese Sea, remains to be seen. I say No, it will not. The US has not risked a war against an equal enemy since WWII. And this near to China, the Chinese probably are not just equal, but already superior. They have satellites. They hav e cyber warfare capacities at least matching that of the US. They have numericla superiority and have closed the technolgoicaio gap . They have missiles. Missiles. Missiles. Missiles. Missiles. And they have, guess what - more missiles. American subs maybe still are slightly better, but they are outnumbered now. And the Chinese can what the American poublic finds much more difficult: the Chinese can digest losses and replace them.


Where the Chinese still lack is their military capacity to protect their international supply lines at sea, around the globe. They are a regional superpower, not yet a global one. But they work hard oin chaging that. Their trade agreements in Europe and Africa are in support of these strategic needs, giving them footholds on foreign beaches, so to speak.

Too bad our relations with China are going down hill or we could challenge them to a test on an old USN reserve carrier to see if we could defend it with the weapons we have available today.

But then we would have to share the test results and they would be able to correct any deficiencies in their weapons program :yep: