The CHN/ China thread
 

Since I would predict growing tensions and most likely ultimate confrontation with China, and the Taiwan issue slowly boils hotter and hotter and the Chinese economic acting affects us all already now and the cyberwar already is hotter than hot, I think a thread to collect all entries on these topics might be on order. After all, we have UK, US, and GER threads already.

It looks as if Taiwan is not up to the task of defending itself with any realistic chance!? And the situation seems to constantly detoriate. Not due to Bejing pressure only, but because of Taiwans own laziness.

That allows the question why if Taiwan lets things slide like this, any US sailor or marine or pilot should be worth it to fight their war for them?

Taiwains example reminds me of Germany and its "defence" :) policy.

https://www.dw.com/en/taiwans-army-i...ack/a-57102659

Best analogy I've read in a while :yep:

I somehow agree .. but is there still a policy? :oops:
Last i heard was that the artificial rivets (not needed, the hull is welded, just for show) of the Gorch Fock had costed 200,000 Euros, because they all have to be welded on the plates, every each and single one.
There can be no better way than fake rivets on a 100-year-old sailing ship, to impress any adversary..

But then
1. Why does german "freedom" has to be "defended" in the Hindukusch (Afghanistan, or in Taiwan, or near Alpaha Centauri?)
2. What has NATO to do with all of it, by definition of its founding.

Defence against bigger countries from military to hegemonial threats is always a a problem for smaller countries (therefore NATO and EU), and almost all other countries are smaller than China, or Russia.

Of course, what you mean is they should do their share in a bigger context of a military union alright, but other than Germany Taiwan is alone, so the comparison to Germany is not quite right. They can probably never build arms and maintain a military on a level compared to China, alone.

What if Taiwan had own nuclear weapons? (I guess the last US ones were removed in 1972?)

Why don't you call it the "Armageddon" thread Skybird because that's what we're counting down to, these countries need to be in there for definite, China, Russia, USA, N Korea and Iran, all of these countries are wanting power beyond what they already have and nothing will stop them from attaining it.
I've been hearing the sound of distant drums for decades and this last year they've suddenly got louder and louder. One of those countries named above will be at the centre of it and once it begins there'll be no stopping it, so put aside all those daft ideas of colonising Mars or anywhere else and prepare thyself for the inevitable Nuclear apocalypse.

Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.

White Horse.
Then I saw when the Lamb broke one of the six seals, and I heard one of the four living creatures saying as with a voice of thunder, "Come." I looked, and behold, a white horse, and he who sat on it had a bow; and a crown was given to him, and he went out conquering and to conquer.

Red Horse
When He broke the second seal, I heard the second living creature saying, "Come." And another, a red horse, went out; and to him who sat on it, it was granted to take peace from Earth, and that men would slay one another; and a great sword was given to him.

Black Horse
When He broke the third seal, I heard the third living creature saying, "Come." I looked, and behold, a black horse; and he who sat on it had a pair of scales in his hand. And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, "A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; but do not damage the oil and the wine."

Pale Horse
When the Lamb broke the fourth seal, I heard the voice of the fourth living creature saying, "Come." I looked, and behold, an ashen horse; and he who sat on it had the name Death; and Hades was following with him. Authority was given to them over a fourth of the earth, to kill with sword and with famine and with pestilence and by the wild beasts of the earth.

I of course understand the pressure limited demographic numbers mean for availability of young men to serve in the armed forces (Taiwan's Heinsohn war index 2017 was just 0.88, that of Hong Kong, while we are at it, at 0.56), but what the article refers to and what I wonder about is that the Taiwanese let things slide, end madatory armed service, and let trainign and morale and technological levels detoriate, while they should have an interets in achieving right the opposite. Israel has such problems, too. Look what they make of it. They do exactly the oposite. Mandatory service for men and women, mandatory retraining, keeping training and technology levels as high as they can.

Does anyone know this novel already, "2034"? I think it sounds like one by Tom Clancy, Red Storm Rising maybe, but the readers' reviews at various sites are quite mixed, marking bad literaric style, shallow technological description and poor narrating. Not certain whether its worth my time...!?



https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/54211065-2034


https://www.amazon.com/2034-Novel-Ne.../dp/1984881256

That's because USA has acted like what we here in Denmark call Curling parents-USA their allied has swept everything away in front of the Taiwan people.

They-the Taiwans know USA will rush to the scene as soon China do something wrong.

Taiwan is not exactly a toothless tiger them self-They just doesn't have the quantity in material and soldiers.

Don't know where Taiwan is when it comes to compare technologies with China.

Markus

Taiwan operates Mirage 2000s and older-block F-16s, as well as an own development of wich I never have heard, they also bought Hawkeye AWACS, and still run some older F5s or F20s. Their army is 200.000. Their navy operates I think 2 Diesel submarines, some Kidd destroyers and Perry frigates. Nothing that could intimidate the Chinese with their technologically superior platforms and superior numbers.

As I see it, if the Chiense mean it serious they will sweep Taiwanese latforms on sea and in the air on day one. They will simply flood defences with their own numbers.

They have older verisions of Patriot, plus Stingers and Hawk.

The issue the article I linked to is that they have allowed the forces to slowly degenerate in readiness, training levels, skill, practice, morale, motivation.

I thought for long time otherwise and thought they would be set up better, consideirng that they are a high tech nation. It seems I overestimated them.

As I see it, the US would need to throw its own weight in completely to defend Taiwan. I am still in doubt whether the US would engage with China in a full blwon war, just over Taiwain. The Chinese are a completely other league than anyone the US has ever fought against before, since WW2. Taiwan by itself has simply not the smallest chance to prevent an invasion. They can only hope delay total defeat by fightign the invaders on the island by using according tactics. But that means the island's cities and factories are at Bejing's mercy and can be wiped out at will.

I wonder whether Taiwan maybe has secret nukes?

^ "The issue the article I linked to is that they have allowed the forces to slowly degenerate in readiness, training levels, skill, practice, morale, motivation."

As I said it's the Americans fault they have acted like curling parents

Taiwan is not alone there are other countries who USA has swept away problems that may lay ahead.

Markus

Well I hope when China invades Australia America will help, we have no nukes here and very close to China, I'm sure they are looking at Australia and smacking their lips!! :oops:

You folks had best see to your own defense. The people running my country now can't be trusted to honor our commitments.

Thanks, I needed that boost in spirits!! :doh:

While I see a military collision with China including Australia as absolutely realistic, I doubt that a Chinese invasion of the Australian continent plays a role in it. It will come under attack, bases, installations, industry, yes, but why wasting troops and putting them at risk by invading such a big, empty place? As far as I believe I understood their military strategic goals, they do not need the northern coast for own bases. Conquesting of clearly foreign, distant territories is not what they are after.

Best start training those drop bears in the art of covert warfare operations then.

I wonder wether the Chinese fishing boat fleets already get counted as a branch of their military? They are harassing other nations fisherboats even inside theese nations' own territorial waters. And when one challenges them on that, they send an armada of coast guard boats.

What's "suffocating" and "bullying" in Mandarin?

Well it might cost me my citizenship but I would volunteer to come help you drive them off and I wouldn't be the only one.

It is an interesting thoughts Reece came up with

Lets play a made-up war game scenarios.

Year
2022
Month
June
Day 11
Time
0600 local time.
A massive Chinese armada consisting of a huge air fleet and ships is heading towards Taiwan

China has decided to invade Taiwan.

What kind of response can we expect from Taiwan-USA-Japan ?
Will the war extend to other countries Like Australia and South Korea ?
Will North Korea see a change to do something not so clever now if SK is fighting China ?

Markus

Did this massive armada suddenly materialize out of thin air? How does such an intelligence failure happen with todays technology?

I would expect a massive cyber offensive first to cause confusion, disruption, sensor and intel blindess, damage, short: messing of C3I infrastructure and bringing down civil production and traffic, causing panic, reducing reaction times. Then a systematic attempt to isolate the air space around the island so that no supplies and reinforcements could get in, combined with the effort to keep the US carriers at long distance so that they cannot strike so easily. Extensive ASW operations as well. Maybe even attack them directly. I think they have the capability to kill them - if they manage to pinpoint their location. Just then I expect an intensification of the missile bombardement of the island, both industrial and military targets, and an armada of amphibious units and troop carriers crossing the strait. Probably also intense infiltration via special commands, for sabotaging, and collecting intel, many days ahead.

Some of what will happen, maybe will remind of what we have seen on the Crimean, and the Russian-Georgian war. The Russian tricks to spread confusion and keep the world wondering instea d of reacting, was extremely successful.

For the US, the risks of high losses are very immense, so nare the risks for the Chiense. But by their state setup and mentality they are better prepared to digest them. The US will be given hell at home.

I put my money on China. The open question only is at what price (losses) they will get their will. But they will get it.

The only thing that leaves doubt sin me is that China has a similiarly low war index as the US or the West. Party rule and totalitarianism and proaganda is all nice and well, still the society in China, its age structure, is atypical for an expansive aggressive political course. In 2017, China ha da war index of 0.99, the US of 0.96.

click:
https://think-beyondtheobvious.com/w...ar-Index-1.png


I do not expect too much from Japan and Soutgh Korea, by numbers their possibilities simply are too limited.



As the US, i would do all what militarily could be done to widen the combat zone from Taiwan to all the coastal industrial centres and metropoles of the Chinese homeland. Why helping in the destruction of Taiwan by fighting there, instead of carrying the destruction to the attacker and making him bleed on his own land? If China does not pay the price, its pointless to fight it. This forces China to spread its forces to protect all its coast, instead of amassing its power at and around Taiwan, gaining absolute superiority there. Stealth, and long range missiles will play a dominant role. Go for the industry, the economy, the energy production, dams, nuclear powerplants, everything. Soft targets. And by that, maximising the pain for China and the price it has to pay. The public mujst feel that this war is not just some distant patriotic show event, but bites them into their noses right in their own private lives.



Both sides will desperately run extensive ASW operations. Numbers again are against the Americans.



IMO key would be to inflict and maximise punishing damages and losses on the Chinese - but not in the battle for Taiwan directly (which would only accumalate collateral damage to Taiwan), but everywhere in China where the distance allows it. China is a highly developed and industrialised country in certain coastal regions: these translate into juicy, target rich areas, and I would hit there with all power I have, and repeatingly, as hard as possible. It may also help to minimise own losses. Force preserverance is of the essence, if you are as low in numbers and ammo, as the West and the US today is.



Focussing on a military and defensive fighting at Taiwan, imo has absolutely no chance to win, but is a guarantee for desaster. This war shall at no cost be played according to the Chinese rule book. Their rules must be avoided, at all costs. One needs to get out of their screenplay, and immediately.



This way ^, it will be a very bloody mess, outstandingly so. And I am not certain that American leaders have what it takes to turn into the kind of monsters that are needed to order for a fight that could win that war. Global trade will take a dive. And Alaska and the US West Coast are open for retaliation. So are shipping lanes and trade line bottle necks around the globe. The Chinese constantly work on getting a globally operational navy, and widen the network of support bases around all continents.



More ammo stocks in stealthed missiles and cruise missiles. More submarines. More surface platforms. More planes and/or drones. More cyberwar competences. High Tech compensates low own numbers to a certain degree, but not beyond. And Chinese hits at the West Coast must be expected if America plays outside the Chinese rule book and turns the war into something nasty. If America doe snto do this, it better does not even start playing.


Honestly said, I do not only doubt the US would risk a full war with China over Taiwan - I even recommend not to do it. Preserve the forces to protect your Western flank, and live some years longer as a slowly farewelling global superpower, while the Chinese rise and overtake you anyway in this century. What's in for you in Taiwan? Only losses, no gains.



Maybe the lonely single German frigate that is being send now, could improve the situation. :D