US/Russia relations in the Trump era
 

Lot of discussion today on NPR about the future and evolution of Russian and American relations with this new dude as president. Putin and the state run Russian media seem to think we averted disaster:

Vladimir Putin’s top aides say a Hillary Clinton victory WOULD have caused World War III – adding Donald Trump’s win saved the planet from nuclear apocalypse


Maybe now together we can fix Syria, and squash terrorism. But what about Ukraine? Is this a greenlight for a new Russian empire? Maybe the Trump will hand off that issue to Europe.

Pfft, Ukraine is toast. The Baltics will be alright, unless Trump deep-sixes NATO in which case anything is on the table.

Well if a Putin top aide said it, it must be true. They would not lie to us about that.

I think the world should be praying Trump has a strong team of forthright advisers and not simply 'yes men (and women)'.

Not only does he need a strong team of smart advisors, he needs to listen to them also.

I am really curious how a non-experienced non-politician president will match a pretty darn experienced very-much-so-politician president. Would not look good for the PR dept if Donald turned out to be Putin's favourite chew toy. Business meetings are one thing, international heavy weight politics is a different game.

I think Trump will do fine. He has grown his business into a multi-billion dollar international business empire.
Jim and Platapus, to grow his business, he needed forthright advisors and listens to them. Otherwise, he would have lost all his daddy's money.
Von Due, for business the size of his to succeed internationally, he needed to be able to successfully deal with different governments and work within the cultures.
As far as working in government in general: In his business, he had to answer to customers and shareholders (citizens), the board of directors (Congress), and various regulatory agencies (The Constitution and various laws). To do so, he needed his advisors to guide him (Presidential Cabinet), and employees (various agencies, and departments).

I also think that Trump will do fine as US President - running a business of his size can be compared to a State management.
As for Russia/US relations - I can tell only how it looks from here.
And from here it feels like it doesn't matter too much who is the US President or is it the Democrats or Republicans rule. Bush Sr. was Gorbachev's "partner" but was it any good to us? Clinton was Yeltsin's "dear friend" - same. Bush Jr. could "see a soul" in the eyes of our President and so what? Obama received a Nobel Prize, made "overload" (that was written on the Mrs. Clinton's box she gave to Lavrov :-) - "перегрузка" instead of "reset" - перезагрузка) - any other good to Russia?
So for most I can say it doesn't seem that we care too much about who won elections in the US. Couple ironycal comments here and there, some articles in newspapers and that's all (I don't watch TV :-) ).

Best Regards!

Thanks for your feedback, Dmitry, very helpful to hear. :yep:

article in the Moscow Times. Seems the Kremlin is also uneasy about dealing with President Trump.


https://themoscowtimes.com/articles/...esidency-56087

Two alpha animals amongst themselves. That does not compute well.

Putin seems to calculate it like this: Trump is a business man, he weighs inverstement versus profits gained, and will see thast good relations with me will serve him fine. That way I can get back into the game and we two share the world, without me needing to do much for it.

If so, he overlooks one thing: Trump is a "me first, its only me" type of guy. Thats what made him successful and rich. He will not share powers.

While Clinton may have ended up with even serious confrontations with Russia, Trump most likely will learn to just ignore Putin - and leave him alone. Which still sees some gains for Russia, since Trump, if he lives by costs-profits-calculations and a tendency for American isolationism, possibly will give up engagement on certain issues that are more relevant for Europe or Russia.

I guess we'll get to see how effective isolationism is for America after all, probably. :hmmm:

When US/Russia relations go bad ... I can see it all now.

Putin: "Tear down that wall Mr Trump"

Trump: "Shut up or we will make you pay for it"

My thoughts also....interesting times ahead :yep:

I don't think the incursion into Ukraine will go much further, the Russian interest is mainly with the Crimean region specifically the port of Sevastopol, the entire reason i believe that whats happened has happened is due to Ukraine not renewing the lease of the port to the Black sea fleet after it ends in 2017.

I do not see that Russia will invade further into Ukraine, and they certainly wont have an ally in Belarus with that one, i also do not see Russia trying to over run the Steppes due to the EU involvement and NATO alliance regardless of the US commitment.
I think the whole reason you are seeing the bolstering of the Russian forces along the border is due mainly to the fact that foreign countries such as Canada UK France Germany have placed troops and aircraft there so naturally a response is needed and this is it.

Personally its a d**k measuring exercise.

I am due in Russia in a few weeks i will also be in Ukraine after Christmas so lets see what the locals say.