(citation needed)?

That's the issue here, I think going as far as saying who started this mess is all conjecture. One thing that's hard to argue is that there weren't legitimate issues many in the East of the Ukraine had. The only way to see this as entirely a "foreign-imposed" problem is to have no clue about the history and politics of the region, which I see many Western sources and politicians as having. And it's very convenient in some problems to see this is a Russia-generated, Putin-branded problem. Nuh-uh. That's denying a real complexity to this situation.

***

On the other hand...

Reports have been circulating in Russian (but obviously anti-Putin-minded sources, rather than official ones) regarding recent unpublicized military funerals that have been taking place lately. Specifically, several soldiers of the 76th Airborne Division were buried in the Pskov area the other day. Interestingly, just a week ago, Putin signed a decree to award the Order of Suvorov to this division. When asked to comment on the reasons for this, the defense minister said that these were given "for cumulative bravery, including actions in the Crimea". However, apparently these latest funerals may not be an isolated incident...

(source in Russian with pictures: http://slon.ru/fast/russia/opublikov...-1147803.xhtml)

Wowh, this is a substantial and differentiated read on the Ukraine, and Russian, American and German/European positions, I would say, very recommended, by the so-called Security Studies Unit of the University of Tokyo:

LINK - The irreversible crisis of the Ukrainian experiment

Highly recommended. Moral of it: the whole issue is quite different from what many people think, so is the origin and root of the present problems.

Well that's just a sane historical perspective - an informed view that looks at the complex historical picture behind it that stretches a very long time back and is rooted pretty deeply.

There's also an important factor for the construction of this identity in the West as it seems to be today: the Ukrainian diaspora. Prior to the breakup of the Soviet Union, there were several waves of emigration from the Ukraine to the West. Three of them - the one after WWI/the civil war, the one in the immediate wake of WWII, and the trickle of political emigres during the 60s-70s - were comprised of quite a few hard-boiled Ukrainian nationalists, or people who (for obvious reasons) were bitter at Russia and the Soviet regime and saw themselves as victims - finding solace in a nationalist identity that opposed it. In the West, they became very organized and founded a lot of Ukrainian community organizations, which - away from the reality of Ukraine - continue to construct this identity, grounded in what's said above rather than present-day Ukrainian affairs. They have done so for generations and most of these organizations are run by 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc. generation Ukrainians, not recent emigrants. In fact, most post-Soviet emigrants from the Ukraine left for economic rather than political reasons, grew up identifying with a common Soviet nationality (also constructed, of course), and most have no interest in Ukrainian nationalism and are not involved in these organizations - in fact, the vapid anti-Russian-ness of a lot of Ukrainian heritage groups often drives away new arrivals, who may not like Russian politics and be pro-European, but want no part of Russia-bashing at that level. Many of these organizations are influential - in Canada, which has led the way in anti-Russian sanctions, they are actually an important voting block (there is a long and storied history of Ukrainian farmers in the Canadian prairies, who today happen to be strong supporters of the Conservative party). To a large extent, these people's views - stemming from a constructed cultural identity - become the views of Ukraine and the current crisis voiced in Western media. This is a big factor.

I think it's not too much to ask for these to be taken with a grain of salt.

Interesting, thanks!

^ If only the CIA knew that :)

^ They know it. It is their job not to let the public know it. ;) Media control and propaganda is the name of the game.

Intel services are more busy with manipulating the own public than with anything else. ;)

So...


http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28934213

Something really weird and fishy is going on - on both sides and certainly on the face of it, there seems to be both a screw-up and a pretty lame Russian effort at covering up going on.

Research dug up on the 98th Airborne Division, which the captured soldiers are from, suggests that they left their base at Kostroma - a solid 1000km from the conflict zone - on August 23rd. The Russian military says they "blundered into Ukrainian territory during a routine patrol", but why are airborne troops patrolling a border 1000km from their home base? And why were they found as much as 15km inside the Ukrainian territory?

On the other hand, the wisdom of sending an isolated, unprepared unit with no orders to fire (and certainly it does seem like the Russian soldiers neither fired nor had been expecting contact with the Ukrainian military) on patrol, let alone deep into Ukrainian territory next day after arriving in theater is also something to ponder. If you ask me, this sounds like some sort of pre-arranged blunder intended to muddy the waters at the Putin-Poroshenko talks today.

At the same time, the Russian journalists who broke the story about the burials of airborne troops in the Pskov region yesterday have apparently been receiving anonymous death threats today.

From the above link:

Truly farcical :nope:

Good read indeed.:up:

It will be interesting which way the cards will fall eventually.

something is definitely going on, Rebels and UKR forces are each routinely claiming they are winning, but UKR sources are now saying some of their forces, incuding the "Donbass" Battalion has been encircled by Rebels (and/or Russians?) forces who have also retaken certain villages.

It does look like the Rebels have been heavily reinforced and/or Russian forces are heavily involved.

This is from a normally suspect Russian source, but UKR sources say more or less the same thing:

http://en.itar-tass.com/world/746720

It does look like the Russian invasion may be real this time.

The irony here is that de facto Kiev'S president Poroshenko currently cannot have any interest in a peace deal, while Russia would sit very comfortably with a peace deal. If that is not queer.

Because right now, any peace deal would mean that Kiew gives up claim for what it calls territorial integrity within the old political framework of a non-federalist state of enforced unity and strictly centralised power (formally, practically the Oligarchs are probably the most deciding factor), and its claim to also rule the rebllious Easten provinces. Also, the president would get serious trouble with all those Westukrainians who were willing to go to war and maybe even fight for Kiewv's claims - only to see their ideals beign sold out and the cause of their struggle being given up. The president politically cannot survive that. And finally, let's not forget that the Ukraine de facto is ruled by oligarchs, to whom Poroshenko belongs himself. Those who sided with Kiev's intention to protect their financial and business interests as well as their political influence, will not take it lightly that their cause has been given up. The power struggle could lead to a new wave of violence - this time in Kiev again.

Putin on the other hand would accept such a peace deal any moment, he currently is in a no-fail-possible situation: if Kiev would sign a peace deal, it would be at Russia's conditions, with an enforced federalist structure of the Ukraine that Russia can use via the rebellious Eastern provinces to exploit the federalist framework for keeping Ukraine weak and unstable, and the Crimean is lost for Kiev anyway, no matter how it goes with the other provinces. The eU is not liokely to miove in soon, and especially the threat of NATO moving into the Ukraine and making it a member of the alliance is no longer on the table, I think that is certain for the predictable future. So Putin succeeded in securing what probably have been his main objectives.

So, what could so easily be - will not be in the forseeable future: a peace deal. It would be self-destroying for the current president to agree to one.

Possible however that sooner or later he will need to accept it, no matter what that means for him and the remaining lets call it west-and-central Ukraine.

Reminds me of the Palestinian deadlock in Westjordan, somehow. There the leadership also could not accept to give up on the critical key demands that are unacceptable fore Israel (free return to Israeli territory for minimum 4 million Palestinians), because for Fatah taking them into Westjordan themselves would be suicide.

Well, keep in mind too that guys like the Donbass battalion and other pro-government militias have long been complaining about the precariousness of their situation - they say that basically the entire Ukrainian effort is being fought by a division-sized military force made up almost entirely of volunteers, not all of them of the greatest quality, and often with poor coordination. Kiev has been reluctant (or flat-out unable) to commit regular army units, and attrition has been high - little surprise considering the latest round of fighting has focused on heavily built-up areas like Donetsk. Recall Chechnya and Grozny, and that was a separatist city 3 times smaller than Donetsk assaulted by a substantially larger (possibly as much as 10 times larger) and more committed Russian force, and all efforts at a direct assault there failed spectacularly. I doubt one would expect more from the Ukrainians today.

I'm not sure I believe claims on either side, but I do believe that this whole mess is far from over, whatever both sides claim.

I can just remind of those vids about Ukrainian soldiers just returning from the front who were seriously pissed and said that not just one or three batallions, but three brigades were eaten up and practically seized to exist. They identified them by unit numbers, the 72nd, the 71st, and I think the 38rd. They indicated their losses were extreme. Other reports said that the survivors from what remained of the 72nd, had switched sides and joined the Russians, just to save themselves.

They are definitely not happy with what Kiev gives them in support and orders. I think it is not just bad equipment and lacking troop quality - it is also plenty of military incompetence on the political leader's side. Poroshenko does not give me the impression of a man who just sits and listens to his experts for a matter, but who tries to do things himself. Producing chocolate and raising a big business does not qualify you for commanding a war campaign, I would think.

Three combat brigades, that is almost one division - gone.

No bad resistance from a "bandit force" that Kiev just days ago claimed to stand on the brink of defeat.

And on TV today it was said that the forces trying to close a ring around two big cities, have been broken up and pushed back.

Putinwas quite clever at the meeting yesterday when he said the Russians would do what they could to help along a truce but went on to say that Ukraine were responsible for halting the fighting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_d7m...utu.be&t=1m40s

T-72BM allegedly spotted in Ukraine.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28961080

http://i40.servimg.com/u/f40/12/70/79/60/t-72bm11.jpg