Every NATO country except the U.S. could not do this certainly not if they would operate under the same conditions even the U.S. would have a though fight fighting this kind of Russian defense lines this is not Afghanistan or Iraq. This would mean large losses for NATO, the only option would be a large air operation and that we do not provide to Ukraine this war will go on for years.

When the offensive started, some weeks ago, I wrote at one time that I started with giving it a chance of somethign like 45:55. And I linked to that statement a week later or so and said I dropped that chance in my own assessment to something like 35:65 or 40:60, I dont know exactly anymore.

However, if linking to that statement again, i must say my scepticism has grown with every week passing, and I am now at something like 25:75, or even 20:80.

The Ukraine simply has not been given what it needs, not in quantity and now in quality.

In an infinite universe practically everything strange can happen, but I dont bet on it in this case, I would be surprised if the offensive wins pace suddenly and gains its objectives.

And when former NATO supreme commander Gen. Hodges said months ago he expects or thinks its possible that Ukraine would flush Russia out of Crimea by the end of summer or early autumn, already back then I was frowning eyebrows and wondered what kind of mushrooms he was on. The best outcome I could imagine at that time was to break through to the coast and isolate Crimea completely. Not more.

Things run badly for Ukraine. Even diplomatic setbacks do not make it better, even if caused by exaggerated Ukrainains expectations.

I lean myself far out of the window now, and I say this: if there do not come most dramatic changes in supplies and deliveries, then i see it as that Ukraine looses the war. And where should these supplies come from...? Out of nothing, raining down from heaven? Europeans until today refuse to produce in war production mode and still do not fully replace what they have given away in ammunition stocks.

Russia will end up keeping big chunks of Ukrainian territory.

And then rearming for whatever the future holds.


Europe still has not really understood what the term "Zeitenwende" really means. Especially not the Germans, but most of the others have no understood it either.

I'm not sure if the Poles will see this as a help or a hindrance :)

Putin the war criminal is now spouting off about what he will do if Poland attacks Belarus. His mind must be running riot constantly looking for something to use for sabre rattling purposes.

The Polish response was first class "The pathetic bore from the Kremlin is once again repeating lies about Poland and also trying to falsify the truth about the war against Ukraine," :haha:

“The famine will start now, and they will lift the sanctions, and be friends with us, because they will realize it is necessary"

Russian propaganda TV 'show'

The Russians have been telling us for months what they plan to do but the West isn’t listening

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/statu...96774768074752

U.S. says F-16s will arrive in Ukraine ‘towards the end of the year’

The comments signal that the Biden administration is feeling a new sense of urgency to deliver the warplanes as quickly as possible.
The Biden administration expects American-made F-16 fighter jets will arrive in Ukraine near the end of this year, a top spokesperson said, signaling that U.S. officials are feeling a new sense of urgency to deliver the warplanes as quickly as possible.

“Now look, the F-16s will get there probably towards the end of the year,” John Kirby, a spokesperson for the National Security Council, said on Fox News on Thursday. “But it’s not our assessment that the F-16s alone would be enough to turn the tide here.”

National security adviser Jake Sullivan echoed Kirby’s comments on Friday, saying the U.S. is “moving rapidly” to get F-16s to Ukraine.

“We are going to push as fast as possible,” Sullivan said during remarks at the Aspen Security Forum in Aspen, Colo.

The Ukrainians have been pleading for modern fighter jets to help repel Russian invaders for more than a year. President Joe Biden in May lent U.S. support to an international effort to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16s, but the U.S. has yet to formally approve the training program, which is required under export restrictions.

In the meantime, a coalition of 11 nations, led by Denmark and the Netherlands, has taken early steps to make the training program a reality. European officials said last week that they hope to begin the training in Denmark in August, and a training center will also be set up in Romania. The U.K., in the meantime, will soon start English language instruction for Ukrainian pilots.

F-16 manufacturer Lockheed Martin plans to supervise pilot training through a subcontractor, Draken International, according to Ukrainian press reports.

However, countries have been hesitant to commit to sending F-16s from their own fleets to the battlefield after training concludes. Norway has plans to send two trainer aircraft for Ukrainians to learn on, according to a Norwegian defense official, but that has not been announced publicly.

Kirby’s remarks are “aspirational,” as the administration is still working to finalize plans to deliver the jets and train Ukrainian pilots, said a U.S. official, who like the Norwegian official was granted anonymity to speak about a sensitive technology transfer.

The U.S. is working to get Ukraine the F-16s “as quickly as possible, but it will take some time,” the official added. Neither Kirby nor the official specified which countries would be sending their F-16s.

The timeline Kirby laid out is faster than Ukrainian officials have predicted, signaling a new sense of urgency. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said in a July 12 interview that he expected the first F-16s will fly in Ukrainian skies by the end of the first quarter of 2024.

Kirby’s comments come days after Sullivan was forced to respond to questions about whether the U.S. was committed to training Ukrainian fighter pilots, after POLITICO reported that Europe was still waiting on formal approval from the U.S.

Sullivan stressed that the president had promised to meet “whatever timeline our European partners need.”

“The United States will not be the hold up in ensuring that this F-16 training can get underway,” he told CNN.

Sullivan said the main roadblock was that the European partners needed a few more weeks to create the necessary training infrastructure. He did not commit to a specific timeline for training or delivery.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has pressed his Western partners to deliver the jets as soon as possible. Speaking ahead of a NATO defense summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, last week, he blamed his colleagues for what he characterized as a delay in sending the aircraft.

“We have agreed, we have pressed, and we have a coalition of countries that are ready to start training for Ukrainian pilots. [But] there is no schedule for training missions, and they’re delaying it. I don’t know why they’re doing this,” he said. https://www.politico.com/news/2023/0...raine-00107620

Plans may be in the works to use an intended Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian joint military unit as an occupation force in western Ukrainian territories, and any Polish forces entering Lvov are certain to remain there, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a working meeting of the Security Council. https://tass.com/world/1650119

The brainfarts of a lunatic. :O:

Putin has said a lot of things, and most were not exactly 'to the point' to put it mildy.
Will anyone remember Putin else than a megalomaniac fascist.

"I cannot but comment on what has just been said [by Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Director Sergey Naryshkin]

I'm pretty sure that this Sergey has said what Putler wanted to hear.

Markus

A talented poker player, bluffer and gambler. Two decades long.

"Suwalki gap."

My friends on fb are criticizing Ukraines use of Cluster bombs.

This made me ask them following

Why didn't you criticize Russia's use of the same type of weapon ? Which they even used against civilian targets

Markus

Thread locked.