:haha:

The German Marine could send a float into the Eastern Baltic, throwing stones from there. Our only operational free frigate needs to go lonely into the South-Eastern Pacific asking the US Navy for protection during that trip, so the float must do. :D But it will be a float packed with a perfect plan, so the Russians are warned to take measures not to laugh themselves to death.

Reading one of Skybirds comments in his German politics thread made me wonder.

Which NATO member will support an intervention in the Ukrainian conflict and who will reject any military intervention.

I know so far it's only a crisis and not a war between Ukraine and Russia.

But if there is, will it split NATO ?

Markus

it is not as simple as that.

Ukraine never existed as an independent nation prior to 1991. Its boundaries were setup for administrative convenience by the Russian Empire/Soviet Union and not because they represented real "national" boundaries.

When Ukraine became independent in 1991, 35% of the population were Russians mostly located in the eastern provinces and Crimea were they often represented 70-80% of the local population. Most of them did not want to be in a new country called "Ukraine".

Crimea, which was 80% Russian, had 2 referendums in the early 90s where they voted overwhelmingly NOT to be part of Ukraine. Ukraine ignored them and assumed direct rule from Kiev.

Ukraine also badly handled the integration. Ukrainian nationalists wanted to assimilate the Russian minority by imposing Ukrainian as the only official language and enforcing compulsory Ukrainian language training in schools. Furthermore, Ukraine did not invest any funds in the Donbas which progressively became an economically depressed region overly reliant on obsolescent heavy industries like steel plants and coal mines.

The West likes to view this as a simple case of Russian aggression, but it is more accurate to say that the events of 2013-14 triggered a civil war that had been simmering for a long time and that Russia took advantage of the situation.

It is easy to say the West should support Ukraine, but what does that mean?

1. militarily: Assuming NATO helps Ukraine to reconquer and re-occupy Crimea and the Donbas, what then? The local population will probably view NATO not as liberators, but as an occupying army. Does NATO want to be the police force that represses the local Russian population?

2. Judicially: If you spend a lot of time reading news from Ukraine, you will see many Ukrainians view many in Donbas/Crimea as "traitors", so you can assume many arrests, show trials and long prison sentences. Does NATO want to be part of and tainted by that?

3. economically: The Donbas was already depressed before the war and the region has been devastated. If NATO/Ukraine reconquers Donbas, Trillions of dollars will be required to rebuild the region. Ukraine is on the verge of bankruptcy, who do you think will be footing the bill?

No matter how you game it out, NATO/EU getting involved in the conflict is a lose/lose proposition. The only sensible course of action is to continue the present policy, NATO serves as a back stop in case Russia wants to drive deeper into western Ukraine or the Baltic states.

Other than that, Ukraine and Russia have to solve this on their own....either on the battlefield or at the negotiating table.

Keep some of them military assets in readiness for the formation of the EU army :)

??? reading Bilge_Rat answer to Rockstar made me confused.

I'm pretty sure I have, in documentary from WWII seen maps where the word Ukraine was on it.

I'm also pretty sure it was a country of its own before the red army invaded it in its effort to through German troops out of Soviet and to make a buffet zone between Germany and Soviet.

We learn as we live, so maybe I have learned something new today.

Markus

I heard the Gorch Fock is afloat again.. maybe it can be transported to its mission area with a leased russian ecranoplan :O:

There was a region called Ukraine, but no country called Ukraine.

For the past 800 years, Ukraine has been ruled by the Mongols, the Golden Horde, Poland, Crimean Khanate, then Russia.

Some have claimed the pre-mongol invasion Kievan Rus was the ancestor of Ukraine, but a more fair reading IMHO would view it as the precursor of the Grand Duchy of Muscovy which eventually became the Russian Empire.

:haha:

The tactical genius of Boris Becker is already planning the first retaliating serves and volleys for Bernard Langers precision long strikes. Also two legions of well trained political endurance talkers stand ready to wear the Russians down in endless and exhausting monologues.

No nukes, however, unfortunately the Japanese Tsunami swept away our nuclear reactors. We hope to have enough solar panels installed in urban warfare areas to blind any invading enemy troops, however. Russian technological research on sunglasses is said to lack behind in quality and so gives us the edge. We will shine while they will - well, whatever Russians are dojgn when staring at solar panels on roofs, honestyl I have no idea what they do, but just imagine how we will shine!

Looks like the Brits are going in first, Operation Cossack Mace is supposed to begin this summer. Tensions might rise.


sorry, I should have said its not just the Brits but also militaries from 5 other NATO member states are scheduled to be in Ukraine.


https://www.unian.info/m/society/cos...-11376019.html

I know the answer to my question on whether NATO will intervene or not.

The leaders will be debating for days and it will end with a diluted condemnation.

The leaders will also give each member free space to whether they will support Ukraine or not and by doing so they do it without the NATO support.

Markus

Maybe if we returned the Horst Wessel you could install a couple of cannons on it and use that. :)

Putin must be wetting himself laughing.

:haha:

a bit OT here but quite interesting, about the "Eagle":
https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-33543706

Russia calls U.S. an adversary, warns its warships to avoid Crimea

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN2C00WD