Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[ET2SN]

Since the over-all forum is based more in Naval combat.

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

Colonel Reisner on February 12th and 16th.

https://www-telepolis-de.translate.g...en&_x_tr_hl=de

https://www-n--tv-de.translate.goog/...en&_x_tr_hl=de

Within a few days, the number of Russian incursions into the Ukrainian defense front has risen from 6 to 15, with some advances up to 6 km deep.

These are all just tactical victories, but a large number of such small tactical victories prepare the field for a major strategic breakthrough. The Ukrainians are fighting in their line of defense, which has been fortified since 2014, and are now suffering from being driven out of another major stronghold in this bulwark. If there is an operational breakthrough here, the Russians will advance into the hinterland of this defense line, which is much less fortified. This could lead to something much bigger and worse.


Various Western sources give different estimations on Russian shell superiority. Some claim The Russians fire 5 shells for every 1 Ukrainian shell, others claim it is 10 Russian shells per 1 Ukrainian shell fired. A German TV reoprt from already two weeks ago showed artillery units who admitted they fire just twice per day, one shot per time, and one shot of these two over the day being a smoke shell - because as the commander said: "its better than nothing".

[Skybird]

And it seems the Ukrainian retreat does not go well or according to plan. The Neue Zürcher Zeitung writes:

Soldiers complained about chaotic conditions, as the order apparently came so late that they were almost surrounded. They had to leave some of their wounded and their equipment behind, and the Russians took prisoners, as the Ukrainian army command also confirmed. The Russian analysts from "Rybar" reported further pockets of resistance by units in the city center, some of which had lost contact with the rest of the Ukrainian army.

A reasonably orderly retreat with moderate losses depends on whether the Ukrainians manage to keep a corridor out of the city open. Over the course of Saturday, however, there were increasing indications that this had collapsed. While the experts from "Deep State", who regularly produce updated frontline maps, still identified the western part of the city as a "gray zone" with an unknown status at midday, they marked it as Russian-occupied a few hours later.

However, the fall of the coke factory in the north-west of the city reported by Russian and Ukrainian sources in the afternoon could prove fatal for the defense. If it is definitely confirmed, the defenders would lose their most important position not only in Avdiivka, but also in the wider area. The huge site had an extensive tunnel system, similar to Azov Valley in Mariupol.
-----------------------------

They report further that the fate of many units of the 3rd Assault brigade which was sent in to cover the withdrawel, is unclear and that these units in the city have lost contact to the Ukrainian army. The corridor in the West is under fire, at it seems it has collapsed compaleterly.

Sounds to me they have waited too long.

West of Avdijivka is open, flat terrain, and the defences there still are under construction, are not complete. If the Russians manage to press on their offensive, it is unclear whether the hastry defence Ukraine tries to establish can hold . If things go bad for Ukriane, the fall of Avdijivka will lead to something much bigger.

Also, central logistic hubs of Russia east of Avdijivka and aroudn the city of Donetzk are no longer in reach of Ukrainian artillery.


It all depends now on whether or not the ukrianian defences in the West, unfinsihed or not,m are compeltef far enogh to stop the Russians there. Anyway, the price for stabilising the defence now that Avdijivka is lost will be higher Ukrainian losses than with Avdijivka under their control.



Cross your fingers. This could turn out to become a decisive point in the war.

[Dargo]

From Russian Colonel Shuvalov Pyotr Ilyich,
I would really like to see how the armchair generalissimos will personally throw their trump card "the h*h*ls surrendered Avdeevka" will personally throw at those of our fighters who took Adveevka taken. No, there are no pro-Ukrainian feelings among our fighters, and I said this so kindly, almost tenderly. There is no sympathy, just as in this massacre, there is not even a hint of the "military humanism" of previous wars to be found. But come on: tell me that the enemy "surrendered" Avdeevka or Artemovsk [Bakhmut] to those who participated in the attack on these settlements. I still believe it is unacceptable to express losses, but everyone seems to know that Avdeyevka cost us many times more people than Artemovsk (Bakhmut).

And even the final phase of the attack also cost many times more. And just to attack attack where there are not even whole stones left, where every meter contains corpses, blood and fire - this is already an achievement. And not going crazy and not shooting yourself afterwards is also an achievement. And to be there and go into battle over and over again goes beyond what is basically is called an achievement. I remember the ugliest scoffers about how good and brave it is to fight with iron helmets instead of using full ammunition. Nowadays, nobody walks around with iron helmets, but not because everybody has changed their clothes, but because the wearers of those iron helmets are up. Literally.

Now they are trying to instil the idea that a Bukhanka is a better vehicle than Hummers, tigers and all kinds of jeeps. This is something invented and pushed by the *******s who far from the trenches feed on the war, and the idiots who believe in it are the ones who are Avdeyevka or Artemovsk (Bakhmut) have "surrendered" to someone else. In no other war in history has every inch of vast territory been way exterminated, and every step is not so drenched in blood. I have written more than once about what I think about the praise of heroism, especially by armchair generalissimos, but they cannot live and progress here without this bloody and corpse-smelling heroism. ****-ups and heroism: one evokes the other and merges into one alloy. And when the temperature rises above zero, a smell of corpses and burning. There are no other smells here - from Avdeevka to the border with Zaporozhye.

So I repeat. I am very anxious to see how the survivors of these meat grinders will be told that the enemy has "surrendered" Avdeevka and Artemovsk to them. Well, I would very much like to see what happens next. I know what the answer will be, I am only interested in how. But the same goes for those trying to estimate the price of the ruins taken. Do we or the enemy have enough people to pay such a price for every meter of ruin we end up with? I don't know. And I'm not even ready to talk about it yet. Will those who went through this and survived celebrate these victories? I don't think so, but I'm not ready to talk about it. For now, let us dwell on the fact that there was an achievement beyond anything that was conceivable and unthinkable. But there is no reason to dance for joy or humiliate our warriors with the phrase, "the enemy has surrendered." Not the least.

Eternal memory of the fallen.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...95834206887975

[mapuc]

Skybird wrote:
"Sounds to me they have waited too long."

Indeed they have-Yes they have fought well and killed a lot of Ruskies and their tanks. However they should have picked a better place to kill lot of Russians and destroy lots of tanks and other vehicle.

NO they haven't lost the war yet, the Ukrainian. They have lost a battle after long and hard fighting it is far from losing the war.

Markus

[mapuc]

An interesting video clip



Markus

[Dargo]

The Russian information space writ large is also metering its initial optimism about the prospects of Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka. Russian milbloggers initially reported maximalist and unverifiable claims of Russian advances over 10km, likely exaggerated the degree of Russian successes near Avdiivka during initial offensive operations, and expressed optimism for rapid Russian advances.[5] Some Russian milbloggers have since acknowledged difficulties in the Russian advance near Avdiivka and noted that Russian forces decreased their pace of offensive operations around the settlement.[6] Russian milbloggers have also begun to claim that intense and attritional fighting is ongoing around Avdiivka.[7] Many Russian milbloggers also continue to self-censor by limiting reports of Russian tactical actions and problems specific to individual sectors of the frontline.[8] A Russian milblogger claimed that unspecified actors, possibly the Russian military leadership and some subset of milbloggers, agreed to stop reporting on the Avdiivka operations, but reiterated complaints about general problems in the Russian military not specific to any sector of the front.[9]

Russian forces continued offensive operations aimed at encircling Avdiivka on October 15 but have yet to make further gains amid a likely decreasing tempo of Russian operations in the area. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled more than 15 Russian assaults near Avdiivka, as well as northwest and southwest of the settlement.[10] ISW has not yet observed visual confirmation of previous claims of Russian advances in the area or geolocated footage of any other Russian gains. Russian sources claimed notably fewer Russian advances in the area on October 15 compared to previous days and described these new alleged advances as marginal.[11] A Russian milblogger acknowledged that Ukrainian forces still maintain a presence at the Avdiivka Coke Plant following conflicting Russian claims about Russian control of the plant.[12]

Both Ukrainian military observers and Russian sources stated that Russian forces did not achieve their desired immediate breakthrough, and Russian forces faced initial high losses and a likely slower than anticipated rate of advance.[13] Avdiivka City Military Administration Head Vitaliy Barabash stated on October 12 that Russian forces conducted assaults with air support in 10 to 12 directions around the settlement, whereas the Ukrainian General Staff reported on October 15 that fighting occurred near only six settlements.[14] Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun stated on October 14 that the pace of Russian offensive operations near Avdiivka declined and that Russian forces have lost more than 300 pieces of military equipment and 3000 personnel since intensifying offensive operations in the area on October 9.[15] https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...ctober-15-2023

We have not seen this level of intensity in Russian operations since Bakhmut and Vuhledar do not think Russians manage to press on their offensive, specially not in these open fields west of Avdiivka. We can see this week columns of vehicles being destroyed by Ukraine the resources to keep this offensive moving is getting destroyed in large numbers daily even with the shortage of shells Ukraine can break the momentum for the Russians they do not need trenches for that. The situation west of Avdiivka is where Ukraine has proven itself boss in this kinda warfare.

[Dargo]

I am not agreeing on his purpose of these vessels these landing vessel are made for the extra needed air for the Russian submarine force, Ukraine does Putin a favour by pumping them full ... so that these vessels fulfil their task.

[Jimbuna]

Alexei Navalny death: Team accuses Russia of 'hiding' his body

Alexei Navalny's mother has been unable to recover his body after his death in an Arctic jail, a close aide to the dead Russian opposition leader says.

Kira Yarmysch said his mother, Lyudmila, was told his body would only be handed over once a post-mortem examination had been completed.

Mr Navalny's team believes the anti-corruption campaigner was murdered on the orders of President Vladimir Putin.

A rights group said 300 Russians had been arrested for laying tributes.

Western governments say the blame lies with Russian authorities for the 47-year-old's sudden death, while foreign ministers from the G7 group of rich countries called on Russia to "urgently clarify" the circumstances surrounding it.

Mr Putin has not publicly commented since the Russian prison service announced on Friday that Mr Navalny had been taken ill and died at the remote IK-3 prison in the Arctic Circle.

In the immediate aftermath, the Kremlin said it was aware and the president had been informed.

Russia's Foreign Ministry said it rejected "biased and unrealistic" assessments over his cause of death made during a meeting with British officials on Saturday.

Mr Navalny was one of the most prominent faces of Russian opposition to Mr Putin's regime and was serving a three-decade sentence for politically-motivated charges at the "Polar Wolf" penal colony in Kharp, about 1,200 miles (1,900 km) north of Moscow.

His mother, Lyudmila Navalnaya, was reportedly told by the prison service he died on Friday after collapsing and falling unconscious during a walk, his team said.

She visited the colony on Saturday and was given an official notice stating the time of death as 14:17 local time (09:17 GMT), Ms Yarmysch said.

Another Navalny ally, Ivan Zhdanov, said the activist's mother was told he died of "sudden death syndrome" - a generic, vague term for a condition which causes sudden death from cardiac arrest with no apparent cause.

His team said that Ms Navalnaya was told his body had been taken to the town of Salekhard, near the prison complex, but when she arrived the morgue was closed.

Prison officials reportedly told her an initial post-mortem examination was inconclusive and a second would have to be carried out.

Mr Navalny's allies claim his body is purposely being withheld by the Russian authorities so they can "cover traces", and call for the body to be returned to his family "immediately".

Meanwhile, more than 300 people have been arrested following vigils and gatherings across Russia, according to independent Russian human rights monitoring group OVD-Info.

OVD-Info, which reports on freedom of assembly in Russia, said arrests had taken place in 32 cities, with the largest numbers in the capital Moscow and St Petersburg.

On Saturday, police in Moscow detained about 15 people who had laid flowers and lit candles at the foot of the "Wall of Grief" monument to the victims of repression during the Soviet-era.

Protests are also being held near Russian embassies in many countries.

G7 foreign ministers meeting at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday observed a minute's silence to pay tribute to the Russian activist.

British Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron said the UK would be "taking action".

"When appalling human rights outrages like this take place, what we do is we look at whether there are individual people that are responsible and whether there are individual measures and actions we can take," said Cameron, who added that he would not share in advance what measures the UK intended.

Also in Munich was Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who described Mr Putin as a "thug" and said it was "absurd" to perceive him as the "legitimate head of a Russian state".

Mr Navalny had been an outspoken critic of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which began two years ago next week.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68326784

[Dargo]

Czechia has found possible sources of ammunition for Ukraine

Czechia has found sources abroad for hundreds of thousands of artillery ammunition that could be delivered to Ukraine in a matter of weeks, if it can secure funding with partners in the US, Germany, Sweden and other countries, Czech President Petr Pavel said at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday. The president said the potential purchase concerned half a million rounds of 155-millimeter caliber ammunition and 300,000 rounds of 122-millimeter caliber ammunition. "It is necessary to support Ukraine with arms and ammunition from all available sources," Mr. Pavel said.

The Brussels-based Politico reported in early February that Czechia was looking into the possibility of acquiring ammunition from arms companies in countries such as South Korea, Turkey and South Africa. https://english.radio.cz/president-p...kraine-8808818

Kremlin runs disinformation campaign to undermine Zelensky, documents show

“We need to strengthen the conflict between Zaluzhny and Zelensky, along the lines of ‘he intends to fire him,’” one Kremlin political strategist wrote a year ago, after a meeting of senior Russian officials and Moscow spin doctors, according to internal Kremlin documents.
...
Most of the strategists’ reports to their political masters focused on the volume of content produced and total views, but for the first five months, they offered little in the way of evidence that the effort was having any impact on Ukrainians. The Kremlin-conducted polls showed that trust in Zelensky remained consistently high, with 68 to 73.3 percent of Ukrainians trusting the president from February to June. By August, however, the Kremlin polls showed this measure falling to 65.4 percent. It is impossible to gauge the accuracy of these polls, and it’s unclear how the Russians are conducting them in Ukraine. A poll by the Kyiv-based Razumkov Center in July showed trust in Zelensky at 81 percent. The most recent poll published by the center, on Feb. 8, showed trust in Zelensky had dropped to 69 percent.
...
Another article described how Zelensky had pushed for Ukrainian forces to defend Bakhmut against Zaluzhny’s wishes, leading, it said, to the deaths of 250,000 Ukrainian troops, a wildly exaggerated death toll in what was nonetheless a brutal battle for the city. The troll farm employees were asked to write comments such as “Why do Ukrainian generals hate Zelensky? PR out of the blood of fighters” and “To shoot the exhausted president? In Ukraine, a generals’ conspiracy is brewing.”
...
As winter descended on Kyiv, a number of deepfake videos portraying Zaluzhny calling Zelensky an enemy of the people and calling for a coup began to appear. The videos were quickly denounced as fake and did not have any real impact in Ukraine. But the senior European security official said he worried the Kremlin was only testing the ground for future deepfakes.

“It’s very expensive, but it can work,” he said. “In the proper time, it can be used.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...nsky-zaluzhny/

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

And it seems the Ukrainian retreat does not go well or according to plan. The Neue Zürcher Zeitung writes:

Soldiers complained about chaotic conditions, as the order apparently came so late that they were almost surrounded. They had to leave some of their wounded and their equipment behind, and the Russians took prisoners, as the Ukrainian army command also confirmed. The Russian analysts from "Rybar" reported further pockets of resistance by units in the city center, some of which had lost contact with the rest of the Ukrainian army.

A reasonably orderly retreat with moderate losses depends on whether the Ukrainians manage to keep a corridor out of the city open. Over the course of Saturday, however, there were increasing indications that this had collapsed. While the experts from "Deep State", who regularly produce updated frontline maps, still identified the western part of the city as a "gray zone" with an unknown status at midday, they marked it as Russian-occupied a few hours later.

However, the fall of the coke factory in the north-west of the city reported by Russian and Ukrainian sources in the afternoon could prove fatal for the defense. If it is definitely confirmed, the defenders would lose their most important position not only in Avdiivka, but also in the wider area. The huge site had an extensive tunnel system, similar to Azov Valley in Mariupol.
-----------------------------

They report further that the fate of many units of the 3rd Assault brigade which was sent in to cover the withdrawel, is unclear and that these units in the city have lost contact to the Ukrainian army. The corridor in the West is under fire, at it seems it has collapsed compaleterly.

Sounds to me they have waited too long.

West of Avdijivka is open, flat terrain, and the defences there still are under construction, are not complete. If the Russians manage to press on their offensive, it is unclear whether the hastry defence Ukraine tries to establish can hold . If things go bad for Ukriane, the fall of Avdijivka will lead to something much bigger.

Also, central logistic hubs of Russia east of Avdijivka and aroudn the city of Donetzk are no longer in reach of Ukrainian artillery.


It all depends now on whether or not the ukrianian defences in the West, unfinsihed or not,m are compeltef far enogh to stop the Russians there. Anyway, the price for stabilising the defence now that Avdijivka is lost will be higher Ukrainian losses than with Avdijivka under their control.



Cross your fingers. This could turn out to become a decisive point in the war.

Ukraine had about 1,500 in Avdiivka before the withdrawal and around 100-150 (Rearguard) that could not escape the city were killed, executed or captured. Right now the defence of the villages ( Ocheretyne, Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Berdychi, Orlivka, Pervomaiske, Nevelske.) west of Avdiivka each of them is capable of breaking the teeth of the Russians. The Russians will be faced with a series of natural obstacles 6–7 kilometres long these will be separate lines of defence, and they will constantly be forced to overcome, cross them. This will eventually kill their offensive potential in that direction.

[Skybird]

^ In and at Avdijivka, the 47th and 53th mechanized brigades were fighting, and the 3 assault brigade came as reinforcement into the Western corridor and into town to cover the retreat of the defending troops there. That means three brigades, plus support, were involved, and all three have had units in the "town".



It also means that these three brigades now are worn out, have had fresh casualties, suffered a moral defeat, and need rest and resupply. - And they will not get any of that.


When I posted the original post yesterday, news-just-in was that the Western corridor had collapsed.

[Jimbuna]

Denmark to transfer all its artillery to Ukraine - Prime Minister

During the 7th Ukrainian Lunch at the Munich Security Conference, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen stated that Denmark has decided to transfer all its stock artillery to Ukraine. The country calls on its partners to increase arms supplies to Ukraine.

She noted that European leaders often refer to production problems regarding arms supplies. The Prime Minister emphasized that Europe has weapons, and they need to be transferred to Ukraine.

"But if you ask Ukraine, they are asking us for ammunition now, artillery now. From Denmark's side, we decided to donate our entire artillery to Ukraine. And I am sorry to say, friends, there is still ammunition in stock in Europe. This is not a question about production because we have weapons, we have ammunition, we have air defense, that we don't have to use ourselves at the moment, that we should deliver to Ukraine," she said.
Additionally, Frederiksen added that during the COVID-19 pandemic, Europe and the United States quickly invented and produced a vaccine in the required volumes. In her opinion, this can be done with weapons as well.

The Danish Prime Minister supported Ukraine's integration into the EU and NATO. Frederiksen believes that the EU should signal Ukraine clearly that it will join the bloc.

Denmark is one of Ukraine's partner countries. It has provided military and humanitarian assistance to our country and supports sanctions against Russia.

Denmark has already provided artillery to Ukraine and has joined the aviation coalition for training and transfer of F-16 fighter jets.

Yesterday, within the framework of the Munich Security Conference, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen. They discussed security guarantees and cooperation between the countries.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...77ba101b&ei=30

[mapuc]

Markus